Messi, Ronaldo, and this season’s European Golden Shoe race … modified

7 Comments

The last two winners of Europe’s Golden Shoe, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi are the only two realistic contenders for this year’s award. Each have scored 35 goals in league, and once UEFA applies their league strength adjustment, those totals will far out-distance the 31 goals Burak Yilmaz (Trabzonspor) has scored in Turkey.

UEFA’s adjustments are pretty straight forward, if a bit discouraging. For the leagues ranked sixth through 21st in the region, goal totals are multiplied by 1.5. Yilmaz’s 31 goals turn to 46.5. If you’re playing in the first through fifth-ranked leagues (England, Spain, Germany, Italy, and now, Portugal), your goal total is doubled. Messi and Ronaldo’s 35 goals turns to 70. Sorry, Burak.

Prior to 1996, there were no adjustments. In 1989-90 and 1990-91 (the last two years the award was officially given without adjustment), players from Yugoslavia and Bulgaria claimed it. During the “unofficial” years (1991-1996), players from Scotland, Wales, Armenia, and Georgia would have snagged it.

The adjustments are a step forward, if a bit crude. Drawing hard lines at five and 21 seems weird and arbitrary. Is the difference between Portugal and France, Croatia and Romania enough to justify those adjustments? Because as we see with Yilmaz, a .5 different on the multiplier makes a huge difference.

For some reason, I was thinking about all this this morning and asked (myself), “What would the Golden Shoe race look like if we eliminated these arbitrary lines – eliminated the arbitrary 2x, 1.5x modifiers – and based the adjustments on the coefficient itself?”

What does that mean? The “coefficient” is nothing but points accumulated over a five-season span, awarded when a team wins in Champions League or Europa. The logic? “Hey, your team got a result against a club from another league, and that hints at your league’s relative strength, so here – have some points. We’ll start adding these up.” When an English team gets a result in one of UEFA’s competitions, England gets points.

I didn’t say it was great logic, but hey, it’s something, and until something better comes along, it is (probably) better than nothing.

Over the last five years, England’s accumulated 83.16 points. That number means nothing, just know it’s the highest. Spain (79.329) and Germany (73.519) are next, followed by Italy (59.838) and Portugal (54.346).

All of which brings me back to this 2x versus 1.5x business. France, having just fallen to sixth, has a coefficient of 54.178. It’s practically equal to Portugal’s, yet goal scorers from the Primeira will get a 1.5x adjustment, Ligue 1’s won’t. Sorry, Olivier (Giroud, France’s leading goal scorer).

So here’s what I did: I took the top 15 leagues from Europe (15 because that’s the number of leagues that get more than the obligatory one entrant into Champions League), looked at their top goal scorers, and instead of applying the 2x and 1.5x, I applied a new ratio. That ratio: their league’s coefficient divided by the average coefficient of the top 15 leagues. The result is less clean, but it gets rid of that weird 5-6 threshold issue that’s been bothering me for the last few hours.

Smarter people have done smarter things with this, but I’m just trying to do one thing here: Get this annoying question out of my head. So, here’s your payoff. Please, don’t take it too seriously:

source:

Pardew laments firing, credits Palace turnaround to new players

Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Alan Pardew knows why Crystal Palace was failing when he got fired, knows he could’ve fixed it, and seems pretty bummed he’s not there any more.

Pardew emerged to make the comments after Sam Allardyce helmed another upset win for Palace, a 2-1 win over Liverpool which joins defeats of Arsenal and Chelsea.

The win moves Palace 12th, and the Eagles have a legitimate shot at a top-half finish despite their poor start to the season. But Pardew wants fans to know it was about a personnel mistake, and that Palace dropped into the relegation zone after he was fired.

[ PL PREVIEW: Chelsea vs. Southampton ]

The Northeast Chronicle says Pardew aimed to bring former Newcastle left backs Davide Santon and Paul Dummett to Palace, but couldn’t get the moves over the line. Then Pape Souare was hurt in a car accident and Palace was in trouble.

Over to you, Pards (From the Chronicle’s Lee Ryder):

“We were kicking ourselves not to have any left-footed cover. We were playing right-footed players there and things were exploiting that situation. We became one dimensional.

“I was really disappointed I didn’t get to the window because Sam Allardyce followed me and the results didn’t really improve until the new players got bedded in and they made a big difference.”

Allardyce brought in Patrick Van Aanholt from Sunderland and Jeff Schlupp from Leicester to shore up the left side.

The story is made more amusing by the fact that Allardyce has not hesitated to make Palace’s return to form almost exclusively about his influence, while Pardew bleeds the very same blood.

Who’s on first?

Atletico Madrid at CAS to fight FIFA transfer ban

Photo by Denis Doyle/Getty Images
Leave a comment

LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) Atletico Madrid officials are at sport’s highest court to appeal against a FIFA transfer ban that will prevent the club from signing youth players from overseas during the coming offseason.

The Court of Arbitration for Sport is hearing the appeal Monday, but says a verdict is not expected immediately.

Atletico and FIFA previously agreed to seek a CAS verdict by June, before the summer trading period opens.

[ MORE: Griezmann’s advisor speaks on future ]

FIFA imposed a one-year ban on registering new players as punishment for Atletico breaking rules introduced to prevent child trafficking and luring youngsters from their home country.

Atletico denies wrongdoing, though it agreed not to sign players in January while its appeal went ahead.

Spain’s soccer federation has been criticized for its role in player registrations, with Barcelona and Real Madrid also having served FIFA transfer bans.

Premier League Preview: Chelsea vs. Southampton

Photo by Ian Walton/Getty Images
Leave a comment
  • Chelsea won 2-0 on Oct. 30
  • Saints won fixture 3-1 last season
  • Chelsea 13W-2L at home this season
  • Blues lead all-time 40W-28D-28L

Chelsea aims to stack some wins following a momentum-restoring weekend win when Southampton visits Stamford Bridge on Tuesday (Watch live at 2:45 p.m. ET on NBCSN and online via NBCSports.com).

The Blues have lost two of four inside the Premier League — home to Crystal Palace and at Manchester United — but beat Spurs 4-2 in a thrilling FA Cup semifinal this weekend, extending their season to a May 27 final against Arsenal.

Saints are coming off their first loss in four outings, a 3-0 home beatdown at the hands of Manchester City. Now to the road, where Southampton has the eighth-best record in the Premier League. And Saints boast Manolo Gabbiadini, who Chelsea boss Antonio Conte says has one of the world’s best left foots.

What they’re saying

Chelsea’s David Luiz on Antonio Conte“He’s a fantastic person before a fantastic manager, so we talk a lot, every day, because we have a great relationship,’ he explained. We try to give our best for our club and he tries to help me with his intelligence for football to improve my football so I am very happy to work with him. He did an amazing job in this game.”

Southampton’s Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg on facing Chelsea“Of course, you say every game is important, but somehow, when you play against number one, it gets a little bit more important. I saw the game they lost against Manchester United, and now they are a little bit under pressure, and we also want to continue getting good results. Chelsea away is, of course, maybe the toughest game this year, but I think that we have the possibility to get the result.”

Prediction

Rested Southampton provides a real test, but one which Chelsea finds a way to pass thanks to a relatively rested Costa and Hazard. This is Costa’s day, with a brace in a 2-1 win.

Griezmann’s advisor namechecks Man Utd, 4 others

Photo by Xavier Bonilla/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Leave a comment

Antoine Griezmann has maintained a desire to stay at Atletico Madrid, but his advisor says the French striker has five realistic destinations for next season if he doesn’t stay at the Vicente Calderon.

Speaking on the French outlet Telefoot, advisor Eric Olhats says the 26-year-old Griezmann is limited by his $109 million release clause.

[ MORE: Zlatan’s comeback vow; Mata close ]

Griezmann has 25 goals and 11 assists this season, slightly lighter on the goals and a step up in helpers with Atleti alive in two competitions this season. He’s still played centrally and wide right, and Yannick Carrasco is starring on the left.

From Sky Sports:

“There is an unavoidable 100m clause so that restricts the number of candidates. You have United, City, Chelsea, Barcelona and Real Madrid.

“United were the first to come and see us and the most concrete in their wishes.”

Griezmann to the Premier League is a move many would love to see, or at least a new challenge for the fantastic attacker. With respect to Barcelona and Real Madrid, we’ve seen plenty of top La Liga talents move within the division.

Of course, there would be something special to both Diego Simeone and Griezmann winning the UEFA Champions League and defending it at Atleti. Something tells us their fate in this year’s semifinal against Real Madrid may tip the scales for both men, or at least Griezmann.