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Has the MLS West playoff race already been decided?


You know we’re getting to the business end of Major League Soccer’s season when they draw a red line in the official MLS standings, indicating the playoff demarcation line.

I mean … it’s red! That means it’s serious, and no one is messing around anymore.

We have reached the playoff backstretch. This is where supporters and journos start leaning in close, where we start talking scenarios and match-ups, where we commence to dissecting remaining schedules and such.

Only, the way I’m seeing things, the playoff race in one conference is more or less decided.


In the West, five teams have clearly distinguished themselves over the remaining foursome. It could change, of course, but I would wager a sixer of cold Pacifico that the five teams currently on top after Round 21 will remain on top when the season wraps up on Oct. 28.

I know that’s three months away, but let’s take a look:

Here’s why I see San Jose, Real Salt Lake, Seattle, Vancouver and Los Angeles still occupying all the playoff chairs when once the regular season music stops:

  • The Round 21 results only reinforced the positioning. In two cases, home teams in the bottom half fell to visitors from the top half. Dallas desperately needed to top Los Angeles in Texas – but Bruce Arena’s team won. And Colorado needed to make up ground on Seattle – but the Sounders won outside Denver. Both results carry psychological weight.
  • I just don’t see anyone among the bottom foursome capable of making a big move. Dallas has George John back on the field, and Blas Perez should be back soon. Still, that team has badly lost its way, and I just don’t see any reason to believe a dramatic rally is  in the works.
  • Colorado keeps going the wrong way, having just tied a franchise record with its sixth consecutive loss. Conor Casey can’t quite get both scoring shoes on (two goals in 12 games since returning from injury), and captain Pablo Mastroeni isn’t around to help steel the recovery.
  • Portland? Please.

Chivas USA is the one team that could upend my theory, especially since Robin Fraser’s men have three games in have on two of the teams they would probably have to catch. The problem is that Los Angeles, Seattle or Vancouver would have to simultaneously lose their way.

Seattle and Vancouver are aggressively fortifying their rosters. Los Angeles is about as fortified as they can get, already blessed with three world class Designated Players.

So, Chivas could get there – but I don’t see it happening.

There may be some mystery going forward in the West, but there’s a good chance it will only be about positioning and the new benefits of home field advantage.

MLS to the death: Taking stock of playoff scenarios

Portland Timbers' Diego Valeri, right, challenges Montreal Impact's Laurent Ciman during the first half of a soccer game, Saturday, May 9, 2015 in Montreal. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press via AP) MANDATORY CREDIT
Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press via AP
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Five MLS teams have made the playoffs, but in the world of probability that number is a lot closer to 10.

Red Bulls, DC, L.A., Vancouver and Dallas are in the postseason, while Toronto, Columbus, New England and Sporting KC are on the verge. Seattle is just behind that group.

[ MORE: Three big battles between U.S. and Mexico ]

So how about those final two slots?

Eastern Conference

Team GP W D L GF GA GD Home Away PTS
x – New York 31 16 6 9 55 39 16 11-2-3 5-4-6 54
x – D.C. 32 14 6 12 39 40 -1 10-3-3 4-3-9 48
New England 32 13 8 11 45 45 0 9-6-1 4-2-10 47
Columbus 32 13 8 11 51 53 -2 8-4-4 5-4-7 47
Toronto FC 31 14 4 13 55 53 2 10-1-4 4-3-9 46
Montreal 31 12 6 13 44 43 1 10-2-4 2-4-9 42
Orlando City SC 32 11 8 13 44 54 -10 6-5-5 5-3-8 41
New York City FC 32 10 7 15 47 53 -6 6-4-6 4-3-9 37
Philadelphia 32 9 7 16 40 51 -11 6-3-7 3-4-9 34
Chicago 32 8 6 18 42 52 -10 8-1-7 0-5-11 30

Matches remaning
at Colorado, vs. New England, at Toronto 
vs. NYC, at Philadelphia
New York City: at Orlando, vs. New England

Obviously, the Impact have the wheel here, though a pair of road tests — one across the continent — aren’t easy. If it comes down to a match against their rivals at BMO Field, all bets will be off. NYC can do Montreal a huge favor by getting a result in Orlando, but Jason Kreis’ side need all three points (Well, all six points… and a load of help). No one is playing better than Orlando right now.

Western Conference

Team GP W D L GF GA GD Home Away PTS
x – FC Dallas 31 15 6 10 47 38 9 11-2-2 4-4-8 51
x – Los Angeles 32 14 9 9 53 39 14 12-3-1 2-6-8 51
x – Vancouver 32 15 5 12 42 34 8 8-2-6 7-3-6 50
Sporting KC 31 13 9 9 46 41 5 9-5-1 4-4-8 48
Seattle 32 14 5 13 40 34 6 10-2-4 4-3-9 47
San Jose 32 12 8 12 39 37 2 7-6-3 5-2-9 44
Portland 31 12 8 11 31 36 -5 7-6-3 5-2-8 44
Houston 32 11 8 13 41 45 -4 9-3-4 2-5-9 41
Real Salt Lake 31 11 8 12 37 43 -6 7-6-2 4-2-10 41
Colorado 31 8 10 13 30 38 -8 5-5-6 3-5-7 34

Matches remaning
San Jose:
vs Sporting KC, at Dallas
at RSL, at LA, vs. Colorado
Houston: vs. Seattle, at Vancouver
Real Salt Lake: 
vs. Portland, vs. Dallas, at Seattle

Quite literally anything can happen here in terms of these four. Pressure’s surely on Caleb Porter and the Timbers to finally give their supporters a side worth their passion. RSL is the only other side with three matches left, and the two pair up next. Houston has a harrowing pair of matches, one without Cubo Torres, while San Jose also has two tough efforts.

Chelsea make it official with former AC Milan keeper Amelia
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Longtime Serie A goalkeeper and World Cup winner Marco Amelia is giving Chelsea some cover.

The ex-AC Milan man, 33, has also played for Roma and Livorno amongst other stops in Italy, and has been on trial at Stamford Bridge for some time.

[ MORE: Klopp to Liverpool announcement expected shortly ]

Amelia will backup Asmir Begovic, and give the Blues three keepers in the absence of Thibaut Courtois.

He’s available for Chelsea’s next match, against Aston Villa, and will potentially slide into the No. 2 slot ahead of 21-year-old Jamal Blackman. Whether he’s an upgrade in skill is debatable, but his experience could prove invaluable.