Number crunching: How many points will get the U.S. to Brazil?

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For Tim Howard, the United States need to get points when they open final round World Cup qualifying in Honduras on Wednesday, though the difference between one and zero points in the first match of a 10-round, double round robin format can’t be that vital. At least, it can’t be that crucial mathematically. While three road points may prove huge, the effects of losing in Honduras are more likely to be psychological than mathematical.

In the four final round tournaments CONCACAF has held since going to the current format ahead of World Cup 1998, a qualifying spot has only once been decided by a point: last cycle, when Honduras pushed Costa Rica into a playoff after the two nations finished on 16 points. To subscribe to the view that the U.S. needs a point in Honduras, you have implicitly predict some major slips over the tournament’s final nine games.

The top three finishers in The Hex make Brazil, and since 1998, the tournament’s third-place finisher has averaged 15.75 points. The highest total was the U.S.’s 17 in 2002 while Jamaica managed to qualify for France 1998 when their paltry 14 points claimed third place.

CONCACAF Qualifying – By The Numbers
Four tournaments give us very little data to crunch regarding CONCACAF’s final qualifying round, but if this year’s round robin plays out like years’ past, around 16 points should get you to Brazil, while 20 will likely take the group:

Place Avg. Pts STDEV “Span”
First 20.75 2.22 18.5-23.0
Second 18.75 2.37 16.4-21.1
Third 15.75 1.26 14.5-17.0
Fourth 13.75 1.71 12.0-15.5
Fifth 9.25 1.5 7.8-10.8
Sixth 5.25 2.5 3.8-7.8

STDEV – Standard Deviation
“Span” – A completely meaningless figure based on standard deviation and the place’s average points

All those numbers support the popular refrain about home and road performance. That version of conventional wisdom holds that taking care of business at home while scrounging road results will get you to Brazil. If a team were to win all their home games, they’d be at 15 points, right next to the average total that’s qualified teams for World Cups. Swipe a couple of draws on the road, and you’re in.

If you happen to lose one at home, it’s probably not that big a deal. After all, you’re a team that’s good enough to win four out of five at home. You’re probably capable of getting more than two points on the road.

Looking at fourth place

If you’re examining at qualifying from the U.S.’s point of view, focusing on the third place numbers may exaggerate the hurdle they’re trying to leap. Obviously, the U.S. has finished in the top three in each of the last four tournaments and are expected to do the same this cycle. Their question isn’t whether they can beat out the team likely to finish third; rather, can they stay ahead of the team that will probably finish fourth?

Since 1998, The Hex’s fourth place finisher has averaged 13.75 points. The highest total was Costa Rica’s 16 last cycle, while the Ticos also have the low total: their 12 points in `98.

Conceivably, just “taking care of business” at home should keep you ahead of fourth, though assuming you don’t actually take 15 at home and get none on the road, the approach’s success may depend on whom you get your road points against. If you draw away from home versus the teams that finish fourth and fifth, being awesome at home and terrible on the road would still work. You wouldn’t be giving your direct competition valuable three-point results.

Winning at home

The win at home theory might be born from the fact that no team has been able to qualify without some modicum of success at home. Jamaica’s 1998 was the worst  home qualifying campaign for qualifiers of the last four cycles, and they still went 3-1-1. The average top-three finsher takes 12.5 points at home, though there have been a number of teams that matched Jamaica’s 10 without cracking the top three.

Breakdown – Home vs. Road
No surprise, the teams that have finished at the top of The Hex have had the most road success. While the second and third place finishers have enjoyed similar home field advantages, they have been unable to find the same success abroad.

Place Avg. Pts
Home
Avg. Pts
Road
First 12.5 8.5
Second 13.5 5.25
Third 11.5 4.25
Fourth 9.75 4
Fifth 7.75 1.5
Sixth 3.75 1

In 2006, both Trinidad and Tobago as well as Guatemala took 10 points at home, yet they finished fourth and fifth. Trinidad and Tobago later qualified for Germany via a playoff. In 1998, Costa Rica had 11 home points but only 12 overall and finished fourth. Last cycle, the Ticos took 12 at home yet finished fourth before losing in a playoff.

The two Costa Rica examples hint that winning at home may not be enough. Or more readily, no team has been able to secure a top three finish in CONCACAF without some minimal success on the road. Of the 12 teams that have won top-three finishes since the `98 cycle, nobody has failed to win at least four points on the road, and only those `98 Jamaicans failed to record a victory away from home (their four road draws helped to keep the barrier to qualify low, points-wise).

Interestingly, while third place finishers have averaged 4.25 road points per tournament, fourth place finishers have averaged a near-identical four (a number skewed by the eight road points Honduras accumulated in 2002 while failing to qualify).

Twelve of the 14 teams that got to four road points ended up qualifying for their World Cups.

The games, and the order, matter

The aggregates and averages help describe the landscape, but it’s important to remember that individual games make up those totals, and when you’re talking about a tournament like CONCACAF’s, sometimes the order of the games influences the numbers. In 2006, Mexico won five of their first six games. With qualification all but assured, El Tri could afford to cruise to a second place finish. That same year, Panama collapsed to a Hex-low two points, their insignificant closing matches contributing to a seven-game losing streak. Had the order of their games been different, their tournaments could have played out differently, with late-Hex matches having a completely different, more competitive context.

At some point, it’s more helpful to sit down, consider each game and its circumstances, and factor in the historical data when assessing not only how the States will probably perform but what they’re most likely to need to get to Brazil.

Going through that exercise so also helps maintain perspective on the U.S.’s has to opening schedule. With three out of their first four games on the road, the States could be sitting with a superficially disappointing three-to-five points come their June 11 game hosting Panama. But if you play out the rest of the tournament’s results, you see that kind of slow start won’t necessarily sidetrack the U.S.’s qualifying hopes.

Break out the pencil and paper, check out the full schedule, and play along for yourself. We’ll spare you our individual match predictions, but here’s one wild guess at how things might stand come November:

1. Mexico – 25 pts.
2. United States – 18 pts.
3. Costa Rica – 13 pts.
4. Panama – 12 pts.
5. Honduras – 10 pts.
6. Jamaica – 9 pts.

That no Hex has ever played out like this is reason to complete disregard the entire prediction. Mexico at 25 points would be the most a team’s ever accumulated in final round qualifying, a prognostication which makes sense if you think this Mexican team is the best we’ve seen in the last 16 years. Their quality plus the lack of a truly weak team means points could be more spread out than usual between the second through sixth place teams. You may not need to get to 16 this year.

But it’s way too early to know, just like it’s way too early to be taking these kind of projections seriously. After Wednesday, 90 percent of The Hex’s matches will still be on the calendar. Neither a loss nor a draw in San Pedro Sula will have much of an effect on the U.S.’s qualifying hopes.

Prince-Wright’s midweek Premier League picks

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Five games are coming your way in the Premier League over the next three days.

[ STREAM: Every PL game live ] 

If you, like me, love to dissect all the games and predict what the score will be and which team will win, I encourage you to get involved in the comments section below. Let’s have a bit of fun.

Okay, so I’ve consulted my crystal ball and here’s how we see things panning out.

[ STREAM: Premier League “Goal Rush”

With the first section labelled “basically, free money” for the picks I think are dead certs. The section labelled “don’t touch this” means if you’re betting I advise you to stay clear, while the “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” section are the longshots. If it is better odds you are after, those are the picks to go for.


BASICALLY, FREE MONEY

Arsenal 2-0 Leicester City – (Wednesday, 2:45 p.m. ET, Premier League Extratime) – [STREAM]

Crystal Palace 1-3 Tottenham – (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET, NBCSN) – [STREAM

DON’T TOUCH THIS… 

Middlesbrough 1-1 Sunderland – (Wednesday,  2:45 p.m. ET, Premier League Extratime) – [STREAM]  

“SO YOU’RE TELLING ME THERE’S A CHANCE…”

Chelsea 1-1 Southampton – (Tuesday, 2:45 p.m. ET, NBCSN) – [STREAM]

Man City 1-2 Man United – (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET, NBCSN) – [STREAM

Full Premier League schedule for midweek

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Five games are on the way in the Premier League in midweek as the makeup games kick off.

[ STREAM: Every PL game live here ]

Kicking things off on Tuesday league leaders Chelsea host Southampton (Watch live, 2:45 a.m. ET on NBCSN and online via NBC Sports.com) at Stamford Bridge fresh from their FA Cup semifinal victory against Tottenham. Can Antonio Conte‘s men extend their lead to seven points?

On Wednesday the attention shifts to Tottenham who make the trip across London to in-form Crystal Palace (Watch live, 2:45 p.m. ET on NBCSN and online via NBC Sports.com). Can the Eagles put a huge dent in Spurs’ title bid at Selhurst Park?

Then comes the big one on Thursday as Manchester City host Manchester United (Watch live, 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN and online via NBC Sports.com) with so much at stake. City are in fourth place heading into the Manchester derby but Pep Guardiola‘s side are just one point and place above Jose Mourinho’s men and will

[ STREAM: Premier League “Goal Rush”

The full TV schedule for this week is below, plus you can watch every single second of every single game live online via NBC Sports.com and the NBC Sports App,

If you’re looking for full-event replays of Premier League games, you can find them here. They are available soon after the final whistle, but rights limit us to a certain number each week. Looking for game highlights? Try this. Here’s your full TV schedule for the coming days. Enjoy.


FULL TV SCHEDULE

Tuesday
2:45 p.m. ET: Chelsea vs. Southampton – NBCSN [STREAM]

Wednesday
3 p.m. ET: Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Hotspur – NBCSN [STREAM]
2:45 p.m. ET: Arsenal vs. Leicester City – Premier League Extratime [STREAM]
2:45 p.m. ET: Middlesbrough vs. Sunderland – Premier League Extratime [STREAM]

Thursday
3 p.m. ET: Manchester City vs. Manchester United – NBCSN [STREAM]

Real Madrid reveal extent of Gareth Bale’s calf injury

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This is not good news for Real Madrid.

[ MORE: Conte has dig at rivals ]

Welsh wizard Gareth Bale, 27, is expected to be out for a month after suffering a setback with a calf injury.

Bale was forced off in the first half of Real’s 3-2 El Clasico defeat at home against Barcelona on Sunday and Zinedine Zidane is now likely to be without Bale for the UEFA Champions League semifinals against crosstown rivals Atletico Madrid.

Below is the statement from Real on Bale’s injury.

Following the tests carried out on Gareth Bale by the Sanitas Medical Services, the player has been diagnosed with a grade 2 injury in his left calf. His recovery will continue to be assessed.

With Cristiano Ronaldo, Karem Benzema, James Rodriguez, Marco Asensio, Isco and others around, Real should be able to cope without Bale but his talent is undoubted and if he does miss the next month then Atletico will get a boost for their UCL semifinal.

After coming off at Bayern Munich on Apr. 12 Bale missed Real’s next two games before playing against Barca. However, that gamble has backfired.

Real and Barcelona are locked on 75 points atop the La Liga standings but crucially Real have a game in hand over their bitter rivals.

Tottenham’s strong American connection continues

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LONDON — The American connection at Spurs remains strong.

Each year a small group of young American soccer players get the chance of a lifetime: to train and play games at Tottenham Hotspur for a week.

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Pro Soccer Talk was given exclusive access on the most recent trip to England for a group of 30 young American players handpicked by Tottenham’s academy coaches after impressing at the latest Tottenham Hotspur America Trophy held in December 2016.

For the past five years the tournament has been a huge success with the competition, run in conjunction with Elite Tournaments who are based in the USA, producing incredible experiences for young players from the U.S. from the age of 12-15 which has even resulted in national team recognition for some.

[ MORE: Spurs excited for 2017 US tour

Over the Easter break at Spurs’ impressive training ground near Enfield in north London you could hear American accents taking over with “dang” and “shoot the ball” yelled out by young hopefuls who trained for a week with Tottenham’s coaches and played games against academy teams from Spurs and Queens Park Rangers.

[ VIDEO: Premier League highlights

How does this all work?

Four of Spurs academy coaches go over to watch the tournament in December and then handpick individuals to come over to England for the training camp.

Matt Libber, the Vice President of Elite Tournaments, was stood on the sideline keeping a watchful eye over training as he and his staff have now helped organize this tournament, among many others, for the past five years.

Elite Tournaments have been around since March 2000 and now have 60 events across the USA, mostly focusing on soccer, and new events are popping up across the nation. “It’s widespread. People want to play soccer,” Libber explained.

Such has been the popularity of this event (93 teams from multiple states and Canada competed in the tournament back in December) it is being expanded to new parts of the USA in 2017 and beyond and you can find out more info about that here.

“We are expanding the tournament this year,” Libber said. “Previously it was just one event in Baltimore but we are moving it to two events for the next edition. We are going to be down in the College Station, Texas area and then in Orlando, Florida this coming December and we are hoping to expand the event further, to bring more kids over here and to increase the exposure of the event and for Spurs in the States.”

The connection with Spurs and the U.S. runs truer than perhaps any other Premier League club.

Of course, Fulham’s days of “Fulhamerica” are still fond in the memory of many American soccer fans but after boasting Kasey Keller, Clint Dempsey, Brad Friedel, DeAndre Yedlin and now Cameron Carter-Vickers, Tottenham continue be one the first teams that American soccer fans think about supporting when they get into watching the Premier League.

Eric Dier, a star midfielder for Tottenham and England, told us of his amazement at the huge number of Spurs fans in the States as he often visits his sister who lives in New York City and he and his family are blown away by the level of support across the country.

“Every time I go over to America I can’t believe how many Tottenham fans there are over there,” Dier said. “It is amazing that our reach is so far. Obviously there’s a connection because Tottenham have always had great American players and I think there is a real connection with the American fans.”

Spurs are heading to the USA this summer with games against AS Roma in New York City, Manchester City in Nashville and Paris Saint-Germain in Orlando lined up for July. Dier and his teammates are looking forward to their first trip Stateside for two years.

“Everyone is really excited to go over there and we last went there two preseasons ago with the All-Star Game in Colorado which was a great experience. We are looking forward to working hard, playing some big games and enjoying the chance to see our fanbase in America,” Dier added.

What do the kids who go on these trips get out of it? So much.

Speaking to Danny Mitchell, a member of Tottenham’s global coaching program who spent the week with the youngsters from the U.S., he revealed that on the pitch there’s a real challenge for the young Americans.

“The one thing a lot of these kids have always said is that it is a challenge physically, in the nature of the way the game is played,” Mitchell said. “This week there has been a lot of technical stuff which I’m not sure they’ve necessarily done a lot of before but they’ve all engaged well and have responded well to what we have done.”

Engaged in some foreign relations with the Elite Tournaments America Trophy Select Team and the @spursofficial Academy

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Split into two age groups and playing on Spurs’ main indoor facility as the club logo loomed large in the background, one group played head tennis and another a possession game designed to trigger a high-press. As well as on the pitch the group went on stadium tours of White Hart Lane, Wembley, had a Q&A with Dier and watched other games live as part of the full experience.

With some kids picking up the lingo in England rather quickly with choice phrases (think, Ted Lasso’s nickname…) commonplace, it was obvious that even though they didn’t play on the same teams back home and hailed from several U.S. states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Connecticut, the young American players were having the team of their lives.

Over the past five years the main takeaway for young Americans getting the chance to play and train at Spurs is the level of coaching and competition during the scrimmages in England.

“It is eye-opening for the kids, seeing the training style in the U.S. is so different to what it is here,” Libber explained. “For them it opens their eyes to see there is a bigger option out there and also the competition they’re playing against over here. Some years we’ve done really well and other years not so great. It gives them an opportunity to see what other teams are like when they’re not playing against the same teams they play every game in the States.”

Libber (he and his staff racked up 1900 miles in their rental car while in England as they traveled to games at Lincoln, Sunderland and beyond) also explained that players who caught the eye on previous trips have now gone on to big things.

“Most definitely. A couple of years ago when we were over here, we had a couple of kids who Brad Friedel recognized the talent they had and they ended up in the national team pool after that when they got back to the States,” Libber said. “One is now the goalkeeper for the U-17 national team (Quantrell Jones) and another is in college right now (Keegan Kelly at the University of Maryland) after being in the national pool. They got noticed when they were over here.”

Liam Nesbitt, a 14-year-old central midfielder from Baltimore, Maryland, is hoping to be the next in line to benefit from this tournament.

Reflecting on his trip to Tottenham, Nesbitt revealed what he’s learned from the experience.

“It’s been great. I was told this is the best academy in terms of learning the game in England and I don’t doubt it now because it is so nice,” Nesbitt said. “It has been a lot of fun and the coaching has been great. I support Tottenham and this has been like a dream come true. My favorite player is N'Golo Kante though and that’s who I try to base my game off of. I’ve picked up a few new turns to do and these coaches have taught me what drills to do in order to master those moves.”

Patrick Aponowicz was the youngest player on the trip from the U.S. and the 10-year-old was also a Spurs fan who idolized Kyle Walker.

With his flowing locks of blonde hair Aponowicz had been quickly handed the nickname of “Nedved” after the famous Czech Republic winger who shone for Juventus and his country.

“I learned new touches and passing,” Aponowicz said. “It’s been a lot of fun.”

Come On You Spurs

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Like a lot of 10 year olds Aponowicz has a busy schedule and says he wishes he could watch even more soccer as he dreams of one day playing in the Premier League for Tottenham.

“I have school, playing for my soccer team four days a week and homework,” Aponowicz said. “My dream is to play for Tottenham and I want to come back here and train.”

Aponowicz isn’t the only young American dreaming of one day returning to England to play for Spurs after a taste of life at Tottenham.

“Definitely… definitely. That’s the dream,” Nesbitt said, nodding his head as his eyes gazed around in wonderment at the vast indoor facility at Tottenham.

The American connection continues to be stronger at Tottenham than perhaps any other Premier League club.