ccu20

World Cup qualifying and CONCACAF’s U-20 results

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It’s been a theme throughout U.S.-centric coverage of the CONCACAF U-20 Championship, just as it was a theme during last year’s Olympic qualifying tournament: It’s important for the U.S. to do well in these tournaments. Winning games gives players a chance to gain valuable experience, whether it’s the London games (which the U-23s missed out on) or the U-20 World Cup (where the U.S. will compete this summer).

I’m not so sure. I don’t agree, and I don’t disagree. It just seems like the margins for error are so small in these tournaments. They represent such a tiny amount of their actual development time, I can see the argument that we make way too much out of U-level results.

Take the Olympic qualifying tournament, for example. Also consider the lead up to it. The U.S. beat Mexico 2-0 before the tournament and only lost one match under Caleb Porter. And while that match looks like an outlier in the nine-or-so matches the U-23 played, the timing of the loss meant they didn’t go to London. Instead, players spent July and August with their clubs.

I’m going to dig into this a little. As I write, I don’t know what I’ll find, but I’m going to go back through CONCACAF’s U-20 history and see if teams that finished in the top two of qualifying went on to make subsequent World Cups. The idea here it to try to look at whether U-level success matches senior level accomplishments.

Why the top two? Because there’s a large swatch of CONCACAF U-20 history where the region didn’t have a real tournament. Instead, there were two sub-tournaments that determined which teams qualified for the U-20 World Cup.

Obviously, this isn’t scientific or exhaustive. It’s just a thing – a step, if you will. For some teams, like Mexico, perpetual qualification for World Cups means we’ll learn little from their underage successes, but for other nations, we might see them suddenly start qualifying for World Cups after U-success. We may also see U-success mean absolutely nothing.

Here’s a huge chart showing what I found. Feel free to skip to the conclusions (italics – hosted World Cup, bold – qualified for a World Cup):

U-20 Championship Year Top Two Finishers Next World Cup World Cup after that
1962 1: Mexico
2: Guatemala
1966
MEX: Group stage
GUA: DNQ
1970
MEX: Quarters
GUA: DNQ
1964 1: El Salvador
2: Honduras
1966
ESA: DNQ
HON: DNQ
1970
ESA: Group stage
HON: DNQ
1970 1: Mexico
2: Cuba
1974
MEX: DNQ
CUB: DNQ
1978
MEX: Group stage
CUB: DNQ
1973 1: Mexico
2: Guatemala
1974
MEX: DNQ
GUA: DNQ
1978
MEX: Group stage
GUA: DNQ
1974 1: Mexico
2: Cuba
1978
MEX: Group stage
CUB: DNQ
1982
MEX: DNQ
CUB: DNQ
1976 1: Mexico
2: Honduras
1978
MEX: Group stage
HON: DNQ
1982
MEX: DNQ
GUA: DNQ
1978 1: Mexico
2: Canada
1982
MEX: DNQ
CAN: DNQ
1986
MEX: Quarters
CAN: Group stage
1980 1: Mexico
2: United States
1982
MEX: DNQ
USA: DNQ
1986
MEX: Quarters
USA: DNQ
1982 1: Honduras
2: United States
1986
HON: DNQ
USA: DNQ
1990
HON: DNQ
USA: Group stage
1984 1: Mexico
2: Canada
1986
MEX: Quarters
CAN: Group stage
1990
MEX: DQ
CAN: DNQ
1986 1: Canada
2: United States
1990
CAN: DNQ
USA: Group stage
1994
CAN: DNQ
USA: Second round
1988 1: Costa Rica
2: Mexico
1990
CRC: Second round
MEX: DQ
1994
CRC: DNQ
MEX: Second round
1990 1: Mexico
2: Trinidad and Tobago
1994
MEX: Second round
TT: DNQ
1998
MEX: Second round
TT: DNQ
1992 1: Mexico
2: United States
1994
MEX: Second round
USA: Second round
1998
MEX: Second round
USA: Group stage
1994 1: Honduras
2: Costa Rica
1998
HON: DNQ
CRC: DNQ
2002
HON: DNQ
CRC: Group stage
1996 1: Canada
2: Mexico
1998
CAN: DNQ
MEX: Second round
2002
CAN: DNQ
MEX: Second round
1998 A: United States
B: Mexico
2002
USA: Quarters
MEX: Second round
2006
USA: Group stage
MEX: Second round
2001 A: Costa Rica
B: Canada
2002
CRC: Group stage
CAN: DNQ
2006
CRC: Group stage
CAN: DNQ
2003 A: Panama
B: Canada
2006
PAN: DNQ
CAN: DNQ
2010
PAN: DNQ
CAN: DNQ
2005 A: United States
B: Canada
2006
USA: Group stage
CAN: DNQ
2010
USA: Second round
CAN: DNQ
2007 A: United States
B: Mexico
2010
USA: Second round
MEX: Second round
2009 1: Costa Rica
2: United States
2010
CRC: DNQ
USA: Second round
2011 1: Mexico
2: Costa Rica
2013 Mexico, United States

And exhale.

Let me aggregate all that for you:

  • When a team wins CONCACAF’s U-20 tournament, they’ve appeared in the next World Cup 50 percent of the time. They appear in the World Cup after that 55 percent of the time. Exclude hosts that automatically qualified for World Cups (and Mexico’s 1990 disqualification), and those percentages go down to 48 and 50.
  • CONCACAF U-20 runner-ups have only qualified for the next World Cup 36 percent of the time. Forty percent of the time, however, they’ve made the World Cup that followed. Accounting for hosting duties (and Mexico in 1990), those percentages become 35 and 33.

It’s really difficult to see why winning these tournaments is so important. Of course, you want to win these competitions, but in so far as it’s a harbinger of your World Cup fate, there isn’t a conclusive trend.

Take Canada. The Canadians have not qualified for a World Cup since 1986, and given their finish at the 1984 championships, there was reason to think they had talent coming through that could get them there. But Canada has finished in the top two four times since, yet they haven’t been back to the show. Even if 1984 was a harbinger, it’s unclear their more general U-20 results tell us much.

We know that Mexico and the United States have been perpetual World Cup qualifiers in recent years, yet there are three instances since 1994 where they failed to finish in the top two. It hasn’t influenced their qualifying record.

In a way, this all makes sense. These players spend a dominant amount of their development time with their clubs, and while that doesn’t mean their quality won’t come through in their tournaments, it’s also possible that these small samples of games accumulated every one or two years just aren’t that important.

If you were picking CONCACAF’s World Cup qualifiers four-to-six years ahead of time, you’d probably be better served picking Mexico, the U.S., and Costa Rica every cycle rather than consider any U-20 results.

Reports: Gerrard to accept coaching position in Liverpool academy

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 15: Steven Gerrard arrives to watch the U19 International friendly match between England and Japan at Manchester City Academy Stadium on November 15, 2015 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Dave Thompson/Getty Images)
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According to reports across England, despite plenty of rumors of first-team managerial offers elsewhere, Steven Gerrard is set to accept a low-pressure position in the Liverpool youth academy.

The reports state that Jurgen Klopp advised Gerrard to take his first managerial job in a low pressure, low publicity role rather than jump right into a first-team role either alongside Klopp or at another club.

The reports also state his position will not be the U-23 coach, recently vacated by the departing Michael Beale, but instead will be a roving role within the academy still without an official title. Gerrard’s position could also allow him to take a similar role with the FA in England’s youth setup alongside his duties at Liverpool.

Gerrard, who retired from playing at the expiry of his LA Galaxy contract last month, apparently was offered a deal by AC Milan to continue his playing career in Serie A, but turned it down in favor of beginning his first foray into the coaching world. He also admitted to speaking with League One side MK Dons about their vacant managerial position, but said it was “a bit soon” for him.

“I’m just taking a bit of time to consider what’s next, exciting times moving forward,” Gerrard said back on November 23. “I spoke to MK Dons. I had a chat with the chairman, it’s a very exciting job for somebody else but it’s a bit soon for me. But it’s true, I did speak to them.”

Watch Live: Bournemouth vs. Liverpool (Lineups & Live Stream)

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 26:  Divock Origi of Liverpool in action during the Premier League match between Liverpool and Sunderland at Anfield on November 26, 2016 in Liverpool, England.  (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
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Liverpool needs to win to keep pace with the top of the league as they travel to Bournemouth live on NBCSN at 8:30 a.m. ET or live online at NBCSports.com.

Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham all won on Saturday, so the Reds need to keep pace, or they risk falling off the pace, currently four points behind the Blues on top. They’ll have to do so today, however, with a number of changes to the squad, mostly at the back where Liverpool has been vulnerable at times this year.

[ WATCH LIVE: Bournemouth vs. Liverpool live on NBCSports.com ]

Midfielder James Milner continues to take on a new position at left-back, preferred to Alberto Moreno, while Joel Matip has picked up an ankle injury, forcing midfielder Lucas into a role alongside Dejan Lovren in the middle of defense. With Philippe Coutinho out until the new year, Georginio Wijnaldum could see a more attacking role in midfield, and Divock Origi makes his first start of the league season.

On the other side, Bouremouth brings Jack Wilshere back into the team after being forced out against his parent club Arsenal last time out. Former Liverpool winger Jordon Ibe starts things on the bench, while goalkeeper Artur Boruc returns from injury to start in net, sending Adam Federici back among the substitutes.

Two who won’t be available for the Cherries are Andrew Surman and Charlie Daniels. The former has been sidelined for a month with a hamstring injury and suffered a setback in his recovery, while Daniels has a hip problem and was expected to return for today, but does not appear in the squad.

Bournemouth has not beaten Liverpool in nine all-time league meetings, losing seven and drawing twice. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, with the Reds unbeaten in eleven, but Bournemouth has lost three of four.

LINEUPS

Bournemouth: Boruc; Smith, Francis, Cook, Ake; Arter, Gosling; Stanislas, Wilshere, King; Wilson.
Subs: Federici, Mings, B Smith, Frasier, Pugh, Ibe, Afobe.

Liverpool: Karius; Clyne, Lucas, Lovren, Milner; Can, Henderson, Wijnaldum; Origi, Mane, Firmino.
Subs: 
Mignolet, Lallana, Klavan, Woodburn, Moreno, Alexander-Arnold, Ejaria.

PL Sunday Preview: Everton hosts Man United, Liverpool visits Bournemouth

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - AUGUST 03: Wayne Rooney of Manchester United takes on Gareth Barry of Everton  during the Wayne Rooney Testimonial match between Manchester United and Everton at Old Trafford on August 3, 2016 in Manchester, England.  (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
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Chelsea remains atop the Premier League after its eighth straight victory, but Liverpool can keep within striking distance with a victory at Bournemouth on Sunday.

Elsewhere, an important top half clash takes place at Goodison Park as Everton hosts Manchester United.

[ FOLLOW: All of PST’s PL coverage ]

Bournemouth vs. Liverpool — 8:30 a.m. ET, on NBCSN and NBCSports.com

The Cherries have lost three of their last four matches, and Sunday’s test against Liverpool won’t make their stretch any easier. Eddie Howe‘s side currently sits in 12th place through 13 matches, but with just four points separating Bournemouth from the drop zone the club needs to begin to string together results once more. In their last five fixtures, Bournemouth has managed just three goals, so Callum Wilson and the attack will need to come out of its dry spell against the Reds — who have allowed the third fewest goals in 2016 (14).

Jurgen Klopp and his side haven’t lost in 15 matches across all competitions, and with another win on Sunday Liverpool can remain close to Chelsea at the top of the PL. While the Reds attack often gets much of the recognition, the Liverpool is beginning to hit its stride after allowing just four goals over the last matches in PL play. Meanwhile, the Reds attack will have to make due without Philippe Coutinho, who remains out injured with an ankle injury.

Everton vs. Manchester United — 11 a.m. ET, on NBCSN and NBCSports.com

The Toffees have hit a rough patch after starting 2016 in fine form, but Sunday’s clash will certainly be a critical fixture for Ronald Koeman‘s side if they are to get back into the mix for the top six. Everton hasn’t won in its last three matches, while only scoring one goal in that span. Koeman’s group currently sits eighth in the table but a victory on Sunday would propel the Toffees up to sixth.

Jose Mourinho has already had his shares of ups and downs in his first season at Manchester United, however, the Red Devils have gone unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, bringing a more cheery feel around Old Trafford. With the club’s chances of advancing in the Europa League significant, Mourinho and co. can turn their attention back to the PL as the Red Devils attempt to get back into the title chase. United currently sits 14 points off the pace set by Chelsea, a gap that will have to dwindle down before the holidays if the team is to compete for the Premiership.

Chapecoense will be crowned Copa Sudamericana champions

ADDS NAMES - In this Nov. 2, 2016 photo, players of Brazil's Chapecoense team pose before a Copa Sudamericana soccer match against Argentina's San Lorenzo in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Top row from left, goalkeeper Marcos Danilo Padilha, Bruno Rangel Domingues, Helio Hermito Zampier Neto, Cleber Santana Loureiro, Willian Thiago. Bottom row from left, Guilherme Gimenez de Souza, Ananias Eloi Castro Monteiro, Tiago "Tiaguinho" Da Rocha Vieira, Matheus Bitencourt da Silva, Dener Assuncao Braz and Jose "Gil" Gildeixon Clemente de Paiva. A plane carrying the Brazilian soccer club Chapecoense team that was on it's way for a Copa Sudamericana final match against Colombia's Atletico Nacional crashed in a mountainous area outside Medellin, Colombian officials said Tuesday, Nov. 29. (AP Photo/Gustavo Garello)
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Tragedy can only describe the event that transpired just days ago, but the soccer world has rallied around Chapecoense in the days that followed.

[ MORE: PL roundup: Chelsea handles Man City; Arsenal, Spurs cruise ]

The Brazilian club’s interim president Ivan Tozzo has confirmed that Chapecoense will be named Copa Sudamericana champions after CONMEBOL officials agreed to the terms.

Chapecoense was set to face Atletico Nacional in the tournament’s finale, however, Atletico called for CONMEBOL to award Chapeco the title and be awarded the prize money.

“CONMEBOL have testified that they will crown Chapecoense as champions of the Copa Sudamericana,” Tozzo told TV Globo.

“In addition, the club will receive the two million dollar prize. Everything is confirmed. I do not know if there will be a ceremony to receive the cup.”

In total, 71 people on the plane carrying most of the Chapeco squad perished in Monday’s crash, including 19 players.

Tozzo said that while the club is understandable still grieving the devastating event that Chapeco has received an overwhelming amount of support in the time of hardship.

“We are receiving support from all federations,” Tozzo said. “The CBF, CONMEBOL, FIFA, and especially the people of Chapeco. Right now we are beginning to rebuild the team. People want football, people love football in Chapeco.

“Therefore, we must continue this. Let’s talk and do well, let the dust settle and rebuild the team for next year. ”