Fighting regression: Theories why McInerney, Magee can keep up their rates

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Among the three-way tie atop the league’s scoring charts, Marco Di Vaio’s name stands out. He’s the one established sniper, and although his goal rate was down over his last days in Italy and his initial arrival in Montréal, many picked the Bologna icon to have this type of effect when he arrived in North America. Through 13 starts this season with the Impact, the 36-year-old has 10 goals.

Jack McInerney, however, was mostly promise coming into the season, while Mike Magee was an established workhorse. Back in February, nobody picked either to challenge atop the league’s scoring charts. That we inch toward July with each challenging Di Vaio is surprising, with many expecting the duo to regress from their current rates.

This isn’t a law of averages thing. It’s not about things evening out. It’s about assessing capabilities. Is Jack McInerney really somebody who’s a two-in-three type of scorer right now? If you think so, then his current standing shouldn’t surprise you. And is Mike Magee really a player who, for the first time in his career, can get you three or four goals a month? That one seems harder to sell.

There are, however, reasons to believe each could sustain a high goal rate. Perhaps two-in-three is too much, but with changes each player has experienced in their club surroundings, it becomes easier to explain improvement over their previous totals.

Let’s start in Philadelphia, where a hot four months has Jack McInerney in the Gold Cup picture. His early returns, however, were based on a shots-on-goal conversation rate of over 50 percent. Whether it was especially good chances or improbably good finishing, the numbers said McInerney would slow up.

Now those numbers have slipped, down to 43.4 percent, yet JackMac is still atop the scoring charts. The reason may be something more sustainable. As Goal.com’s Keith Hickey describes at the end of his recent Union feature, the connection between McInerney and his head coach, John Hackworth, may be a factor, with the man who oversaw some of his training at Bradenton showing new confidence in the 20-year-old:

Hackworth oversaw McInerney as a high-schooler at Bradenton, was instrumental in drafting him as a Union player in 2010, and has built a bond that has been rewarded on the field. The key to unlocking the potential of his star striker it seems, is trust …

“Trust is not something you can develop with a conversation or in a short amount of time. It takes some time. I think there’s a reason that some players on this team and our staff have that level of trust. It’s because we, through different teams or situations, interacted with each other and had built up a lot of that trust… Jack is obviously an example of that and doing very well.”

McInerney’s conversation rate is regressing, but he’s also being used better than he was under Peter Nowak. That means more confidence, more chances, and a better chance of maintaining his goal rate.

Mike Magee’s situation has some similarities. Though his previous coach, Bruce Arena, didn’t lack for confidence in former Galaxy man, he was never seen as somebody to rely on for goals. (Oh, the luxuries of being a team with Robbie Keane and Landon Donovan.) Yet in Chicago, he’s immediately been installed as the focal point in attack, playing ahead of players like Chris Rolfe, Daniel Paladini, and Joel Lindpere – players who can create chances for him.

Put simply: All of Magee’s career numbers were accrued as a complementary player. Now, he’s the main man. Is he really that type of player? Somebody with skills to justify installing him as a focal point? In this discussion, it doesn’t matter. He’s certain to get more and better chances to score goals in his current job than he’s had at any other point in his career.

Their current rates will be near-impossible to maintain, but there’s reason to believe McInerney and Magee’s regressions won’t be as steep as their pasts suggest. There are narratives to support their newfound production.

Rapinoe, Morgan, Ertz lift US past South Korea, 3-1

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NEW ORLEANS (AP) Alex Morgan scored in a fourth straight game, Julie Ertz scored for the fourth time in five games, and the United States women beat South Korea 3-1 on Thursday night.

Megan Rapinoe added her 34th international goal and her 42nd assist.

Having assisted on Ertz’s diving header in the first half, Rapinoe scored on a penalty kick she drew in the 49th minute when pounced on a loose ball about 12 yards in front of the goal and was tripped by Ji Sohyun.

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Han Chaerin scored her first international goal in her South Korea debut to make it 2-1 just before the end of the first half.

U.S. forward Mallory Pugh had to leave the game late in the first half with a right hamstring injury. There was no immediate word on the severity of her injury after she was helped off the field by trainers.

Meanwhile, Carli Lloyd returned from a nine-week absence because of ankle injury, entering the game as a substitute in the 77th minute.

Midfielder Andi Sullivan started for the U.S. about 11 months after having reconstructive knee surgery. Her third minute shot narrowly missed the far post from about 18 yards. She was substituted out, as planned, at halftime.

South Korea began the game in a defensive posture and the U.S. maintained a decisive edge in possession, forcing Kang Gaae to make several sprawling saves before breaking though on Ertz goal in the 24th minute

Ertz dove in front of two defenders to redirect Rapinoe’s hard, low corner kick between the legs of Kang as the goal keeper tried to respond at the near post.

Morgan scored in the 40th minute, using her right foot to settle Kelley O’Hara’s bouncing pass from the end line, then pivoting and whipping her left foot through the ball from point-blank range. The goal was the 28-year-old Morgan’s 78th for the national squad.

Han scored against the run of play with a hard shot from about 25 yards that sailed beyond U.S. goal keeper Alyssa Naher’s reach before dipping under the cross bar.

Lloyd’s introduction drew an enthusiastic response from nearly 10,000 spectators in the Superdome. The two-time FIFA World Player of the Year missed a pair of U.S. exhibition wins over New Zealand last month because of an Aug. 13 ankle sprain in a National Women’s Soccer League match.

Forward Tobin Heath, who has an ankle injury, and defender Taylor Smith, who has an injured shoulder, were not in the lineup and are not expected to play in a second friendly scheduled between South Korea and the U.S. on Sunday in Cary, North Carolina.

Both women were hurt in the NWSL championship match.

UEFA charge Roma after racist chanting witnessed

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AS Roma and its fans could face severe penalties after alleged racist chants were hurled in the direction of Chelsea’s Antonio Rudiger.

It appears via broadcast footage from Chelsea’s 3-3 UEFA Champions League draw with Roma at Stamford Bridge this week that after shepherding a ball out of play, Rudiger was subjected to monkey noises and other racist abuse from the away end where the AS Roma fans were congregated.

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In the past, UEFA has ordered either partial or full closures of stadiums and announced fines to the clubs, though it doesn’t seem to have stamped out the problem of racist chanting in Europe.

Hopefully, UEFA will investigate this fully and ban the individuals who allegedly committed the chants.

Rudiger signed for Chelsea this past summer for a reported $44.8 million.

FIFA says deal close to resolve transfer system complaint

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ZURICH (AP) A complaint to the European Commission challenging soccer’s transfer market is set to be withdrawn by the global group of players’ unions, according to FIFA.

A formal complaint that the trading system is “anti-competitive, unjustified and illegal” was filed in Brussels two years ago by FIFPro.

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After a meeting Thursday of the FIFA stakeholders committee, soccer’s world governing body said a tentative agreement relating to unpaid player wages and transfer fees reached with FIFPro, European clubs and a global leagues’ group can help end the dispute next year.

“It was an issue that was stewing for a long, long, long time,” FIFA vice president Victor Montagliani told reporters after chairing the meeting. “Because of our impetus they came to an agreement.”

FIFPro, which has campaigned to let players terminate contracts after going unpaid for several weeks, cautiously welcomed its “constructive talks with FIFA.”

“(It’s) premature to discuss what might happen next regarding our legal complaint against the transfer system, or any prospective deal until we are satisfied with the proposals put forth,” the Netherlands-based union said.

FIFA has been open to reviewing a transfer system which has seemed weighted in favor of wealthy clubs and was widely criticized in the European summer trading window. Salary caps, limits on squad sizes and restricting loan deals have been suggested.

Representing 65,000 players, FIFPro had suggested its September 2015 filing threatened the biggest upheaval in transfer rules since the Bosman case in 1995.

Then, a European Court of Justice ruling gave players more freedom to move within the European Union and drove up salaries by letting clubs sign out-of-contract players without paying a transfer fee.

The tentative accord FIFA announced Thursday seeks to amend complex transfer regulations and better protect players and clubs from unpaid salaries and transfer fees.

Another shared goal is enforcing cases more efficiently with a clearer path to applying sanctions. Players can wait many months – and even years – pursuing claims for unpaid wages in FIFA judicial bodies.

FIFA’s ruling council must approve the accord next week at a meeting in India. A new draft of transfer regulations could then be put to the Council next March in Zurich, clearing FIFPro to drop its complaint case.

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Delegates at FIFA headquarters Thursday included English Premier League CEO Richard Scudamore and two-time Champions League winner Edwin van der Sar, now CEO at Ajax.

The session also discussed changing rules that govern players’ eligibility for national teams and switching allegiance, FIFA said.

However, talking points such as club salary caps, allowing an extra Copa America tournament in 2020 on the international match calendar, and issues around the 2022 World Cup in Qatar were not raised.

Report: USMNT interim manager to be named this weekend

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What’s next for the U.S. Men’s National Team?

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The first of many dominos may fall this weekend, according to ESPN FC.

The report states that the USMNT is likely to name its interim manager “some time this weekend,” however, U.S. Under-20 manager Tab Ramos likely won’t be the one named.

Ramos is reportedly seeking a full-time position as the USMNT boss, and the interim tag could be a turn off for the 51-year-old former national team midfielder.

U.S. Soccer president Sunil Gulati had stated following former U.S. manager Bruce Arena’s departure that he expected to make a decision in “seven to 10 days.” A decision this weekend would stick with Gulati’s original intentions.

The Americans will reconvene next month when they take on Portugal on Nov. 14 in an international friendly in Leiria.

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The match was originally scheduled to be played in Faro, but due to recent devastation in the are the fixture will be played in Leiria and all proceeds will go to the victims of wildfire damage. Portugal will also play a friendly four days prior to taking on the U.S. against Saudi Arabia at the same stadium.