Jack McInerney-2

Fighting regression: Theories why McInerney, Magee can keep up their rates

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Among the three-way tie atop the league’s scoring charts, Marco Di Vaio’s name stands out. He’s the one established sniper, and although his goal rate was down over his last days in Italy and his initial arrival in Montréal, many picked the Bologna icon to have this type of effect when he arrived in North America. Through 13 starts this season with the Impact, the 36-year-old has 10 goals.

Jack McInerney, however, was mostly promise coming into the season, while Mike Magee was an established workhorse. Back in February, nobody picked either to challenge atop the league’s scoring charts. That we inch toward July with each challenging Di Vaio is surprising, with many expecting the duo to regress from their current rates.

This isn’t a law of averages thing. It’s not about things evening out. It’s about assessing capabilities. Is Jack McInerney really somebody who’s a two-in-three type of scorer right now? If you think so, then his current standing shouldn’t surprise you. And is Mike Magee really a player who, for the first time in his career, can get you three or four goals a month? That one seems harder to sell.

There are, however, reasons to believe each could sustain a high goal rate. Perhaps two-in-three is too much, but with changes each player has experienced in their club surroundings, it becomes easier to explain improvement over their previous totals.

Let’s start in Philadelphia, where a hot four months has Jack McInerney in the Gold Cup picture. His early returns, however, were based on a shots-on-goal conversation rate of over 50 percent. Whether it was especially good chances or improbably good finishing, the numbers said McInerney would slow up.

Now those numbers have slipped, down to 43.4 percent, yet JackMac is still atop the scoring charts. The reason may be something more sustainable. As Goal.com’s Keith Hickey describes at the end of his recent Union feature, the connection between McInerney and his head coach, John Hackworth, may be a factor, with the man who oversaw some of his training at Bradenton showing new confidence in the 20-year-old:

Hackworth oversaw McInerney as a high-schooler at Bradenton, was instrumental in drafting him as a Union player in 2010, and has built a bond that has been rewarded on the field. The key to unlocking the potential of his star striker it seems, is trust …

“Trust is not something you can develop with a conversation or in a short amount of time. It takes some time. I think there’s a reason that some players on this team and our staff have that level of trust. It’s because we, through different teams or situations, interacted with each other and had built up a lot of that trust… Jack is obviously an example of that and doing very well.”

McInerney’s conversation rate is regressing, but he’s also being used better than he was under Peter Nowak. That means more confidence, more chances, and a better chance of maintaining his goal rate.

Mike Magee’s situation has some similarities. Though his previous coach, Bruce Arena, didn’t lack for confidence in former Galaxy man, he was never seen as somebody to rely on for goals. (Oh, the luxuries of being a team with Robbie Keane and Landon Donovan.) Yet in Chicago, he’s immediately been installed as the focal point in attack, playing ahead of players like Chris Rolfe, Daniel Paladini, and Joel Lindpere – players who can create chances for him.

Put simply: All of Magee’s career numbers were accrued as a complementary player. Now, he’s the main man. Is he really that type of player? Somebody with skills to justify installing him as a focal point? In this discussion, it doesn’t matter. He’s certain to get more and better chances to score goals in his current job than he’s had at any other point in his career.

Their current rates will be near-impossible to maintain, but there’s reason to believe McInerney and Magee’s regressions won’t be as steep as their pasts suggest. There are narratives to support their newfound production.

WATCH: FC Dallas rocket goal sends Guatemalan rainwater flying off net

TORONTO, ON - MAY 07:  Carlos Lizarazo #22 of FC Dallas looks on during the second half of an MLS soccer game against Toronto FC at BMO Field on May 7, 2016 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
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Carlos Lizarazo’s ridiculous rocket shook rain off the net in an aesthetically pleasing CONCACAF Champions League goal on Thursday.

The Cruz Azul loanee struck a vicious shot for FC Dallas’ fifth goal, which boosted out of the No. 8 seed for the quarterfinals after a 5-2 win at Suchitepéquez in Guatemala.

[ MORE: PST talks with FCD’s Hedges, Zimmerman ]

Lizarazo, 25, had two goals in 10 appearances for FCD heading into the game, with both coming in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup.

FC Dallas advances, giving MLS three teams in CONCACAF Champions League quarters

TORONTO, ON - MAY 07:  Jesse Gonzalez #1 of FC Dallas throws the ball during the first half of an MLS soccer game against Toronto FC at BMO Field on May 7, 2016 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
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Major League Soccer will have three teams in the quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Champions League thanks to FC Dallas’ thrilling comeback win on Thursday.

FCD beat Guatemalan side Suchitepéquez 5-2 at the Estadio Mateo Flores after going down by a pair of first half goals.

[ WATCH: Pogba’s classy UEL goal ]

Carlos Gruezo and Matt Hedges helped Dallas to level terms by halftime, and Atiba Harris scored just after the break to put FCD ahead. An own goal and a must-watch Carlos Lizarazo 90th minute wonderstrike gave us the final scoreline. Gruezo also added an assist.

A tie would’ve been enough to send Dallas through atop Group H, but the big win moves it ahead of New York Red Bulls. FCD will finish seventh at worst.

FCD joins Vancouver and New York Red Bulls as the MLS representatives in the tournament, and the league will have at-worst the joint-most clubs in the quarters.

[ MORE: PST talks with FCD’s Hedges, Zimmerman ]

Mexican sides UANL Tigres and Pachuca are quarterfinalists, while Panamanian side Arabe Unido and Costa Rican stalwarts Saprissa advanced as well.

The field’s eighth team will be set after the 10 p.m. ET matchup between Honduras Progreso and Mexico’s UNAM.

The Whitecaps are the No. 1 seed, and could well match-up with the Red Bulls if there is a winner between UNAM and Honduras Progreso. If Honduras Progreso advances via draw, the Hondurans will be the No. 8 seed.

Florida businessman pleads guilty in FIFA corruption case

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 29:  Aaron Davidson, a sports marketing executive from Florida, leaves a Brooklyn court house with his lawyer after pleading not guilty on Friday to conspiracy and other charges resulting from the FIFA corruption scandal on May 29, 2015 in New York City. Since the case was announced earlier this week, Davidson is the first defendant to be arraigned in a U.S. court.  (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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NEW YORK (AP) A Florida businessman pleaded guilty in New York to conspiracy charges Thursday in a scheme to pay bribes to high-ranking soccer officials in exchange for media and marketing rights to international soccer tournaments and matches.

Aaron Davidson, 45, entered the plea in Brooklyn federal court. Sentencing before U.S. District Judge Pamela K. Chen was set for April 24, when Davidson could face decades in prison. As part of his plea, he agreed to forfeit more than a half-million dollars.

[ WATCH: Pogba’s classy goal ]

Davidson was arrested last year in the FIFA probe after prosecutors said soccer officials accepted $150 million in bribes over a 24-year period in exchange for rigging bids for lucrative marketing rights. Davidson ran a Miami-based marketing firm. He was arrested along with more than a dozen other people in a case prosecuted in the United States on the grounds that illegal payments used U.S. banks and those involved conducted meetings in the United States.

Prosecutors said Davidson negotiated and agreed to make bribe payments totaling more than $14 million, executing multiple criminal schemes including the agreement to pay bribes to a high-ranking official of FIFA, CONCACAF, the Caribbean Football Union and one of FIFA’s national member associations.

[ MORE: Why Pogba took PK over Rooney ]

The government said the bribes were paid to secure lucrative media and marketing rights to international soccer tournaments and matches for his company, Traffic USA, and its business partners.

Prosecutors said those sports events included FIFA World Cup qualifiers, the CONCACAF Gold Cup and the CONCACAF Champions League, among others.

The government said its investigation continues.

UEFA president talks up Champions League final in U.S.

ROME, ITALY - SEPTEMBER 22:  UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin poses for a picture during UEFA Euro Roma 2020 Official Logo Unveiling on September 22, 2016 in Rome, Italy.  (Photo by Getty Images)
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UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin is open to the idea of the UEFA Champions League final being played outside Europe.

Specifically, Ceferin thinks about New York.

[ VIDEO: Previewing all 10 PL matches ]

Ceferin said Thursday that staging the first ever UCL final away from Europe would be discussed at some point.

From FOX:

“To go from Portugal to Azerbaijan for example is almost the same or the same as if you go to New York. For the fans it’s no problem but we should see. It’s a European competition so let’s think about it.”

Given the preseason matches played in the United States, China, and Australia, it makes sense to stage an important UEFA match outside Europe. Those first two countries especially aim to become power players in the game, and certainly it would benefit UEFA to showcase its absolute finest (if only as a reminder).

We don’t get to see entire first teams playing the game in earnest when friendlies hit U.S. soil, and the successful Copa America showed UEFA that CONMEBOL and CONCACAF trust the States with critical matches.

Selfishly, of course we want this. And selfishly, of course Europe wants to keep it. Their fans wouldn’t necessarily want to take an incredibly expensive trip to see a UCL final.