FBL-EUR-C1-C3-SUPERCUP-BAYERN MUNICH-CHELSEA

Bayern shouldn’t be judged, but worrisome signs from Guardiola’s early days

1 Comment

It’s too early to be pass judgment on anybody, but with each moment a team’s on the field gives us chance to consider implications, should a team’s form persist. Particularly when a club has a new player, coach, or way of playing, these moments carry considerable weight, often giving us reason to doubt past performance. It’s always important not to read too much into August results, but it may also be vital to note where and how a team are showing themselves vulnerable.

Which, of course, brings us to the new Bayern Munich, a team that won today’s UEFA Super Cup after defeating Chelsea on penalty kicks in Prague. It was the first silverware of the Pep Guardiola era, yet the performance should also give Bayern fans pause. In the reticent, stalwart approach Chelsea took to the European champions, the Blues showed the formula which often frustrated Guardiola’s Barcelona teams may see similar success against München.

As they did when facing Barcelona in Champions League two years ago — or, as José Mourinho’s Internazionale team did against Barça two years before that — Chelsea showed little appetite for the ball. Instead, their primary concern was maintaining their shape defensively, allowing their midfield block to be pushed to the edge of the penalty area as they sacrificed control and territory for organization.

Their final possession number, 26 percent, was indicative of their willingness to cede, but although Chelsea were outshot 41-14 (10-6, shots on goal), Bayern’s advantage in opportunities wasn’t built until Mourinho’s side took an early lead in extra time. Until Eden Hazard’s 92nd minute tally, Chelsea’s threat on the counter had matched Bayern chance-for-chance. Bayern’s huge edge in possession failed to produce an advantage on the scoreboard, let alone in actual chances.

The exact same thing could be said for Chelsea’s battle against Barcelona two years ago. It also applies to Inter’s win over Barça in 2010 as well as Chelsea’s dramatic loss to Barcelona in 2009, the year Andres Iniesta’s late goal at Stamford Bridge sent the visiting Blaugrana into the final. We saw José Mourinho’s Real Madrid team have success during his first year in Spain employing a similar approach, while Rubin Kazan used the tactic go 1-1-2 (W-L-T) against Guardiola over two Champions League campaigns.

And in the year since Guardiola’s left Barcelona, with the Catalans still employing the approach he instilled when he took over for Frank Rijkaard, Barcelona’s been troubled by the lopsided approaches Celtic, Milan, Paris Saint-Germain, and now Atlético Madrid. The plan doesn’t work every time, with a serious of lower level teams failing to hold off Guardiola’s teams, but when you have enough talent to matchup against his teams’ attackers, the tactics we saw today can offset the stylistic advantage.

source: APThere is an important caveat to this critique, though. A vast majority of the time, Guardiola’s teams simply blow through teams that try to employ conservative approaches. Yes, his Barcelona had trouble against good teams, but who doesn’t have trouble against talented squads? somebody Even elite teams play better against bad teams, worse against good ones. That’s the nature of competition.

But that caveat’s too simple. It’s too reductive. Guaridola’s approach allowed a team like Rubin Kazan — a squad with far less talent than those Barça teams — to be more competitive than they should have been. The philosophy that favors quick, skilled talent over players more likely to win one-on-one physical challenges allowed players like Esteban Cambiasso, Thiago Motta and Javier Zanetti to be disproportionately important in 2010. And it also allowed lesser talented sides like Celtic, Milan, and Atlético Madrid to use basic organization and counterattacking guile to give their teams a betterchance against Barcelona last season.

None of this is original thought, but it’s worth repeating in the wake of what we’re seeing from Bayern Munich. In the Bundesliga, against lesser teams, Bayern is controlling an inordinate amount of possession, even though they’ve yet to post a result in proportion to that dominance. The outscored their opponents 6-1 through three rounds, but on Tuesday, they also lost their perfect record, Freiburg getting an 86th minute goal from Nicolas Höfler to earn a 1-1 result.  Add in today’s result and the 4-2 Super Cup loss to Dortmund and Bayern have a series of decent yet concerning results. After all, this is a team that posted a +80 goal difference in last year’s Bundesliga.

At that really is the point. Bayern are clearly a very good team. You have to be to claim a Super Cup over Chelsea. But are they better than last year’s team, a squad that won three trophies during one of the most dominant club seasons in history? Has Pep Guardiola broken something that didn’t need fixing? Because with one of the most talented teams in Europe, there is one more than one way to this team can win games. Why has Guardiola elected to move away from the won that worked?

Don’t answer that question yet. As noted at the outset, it’s too early to pass judgment on any team. These are, however, those series of moments that allow us to consider implications. And given there was already a formula in place to slow down a Guardiola approach we’re seeing move from Barcelona to Munich, those implications are not positive. At least, they’re not positive compared to last season.

Champions League field set: Who can Arsenal, Man City, Leicester draw?

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 06: Leroy Sane of Manchester City (R) shoots from a freekick during the UEFA Champions League Group C match between Manchester City FC and Celtic FC at Etihad Stadium on December 6, 2016 in Manchester, England.  (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images
Leave a comment

We have to wait until Monday for the draw, but the field is set for the UEFA Champions League’s knockout rounds.

Seeded
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Napoli
Monaco
Leicester City
Juventus
Borussia Dortmund

[ MORE: Examining Leicester, Man City ]

Unseeded
Paris Saint-Germain
Bayern Munich
Manchester City
Benfica
Bayer Leverkusen
Porto
Sevilla
Real Madrid


Premier League scenarios

Who can the three remaining clubs from England’s top flight face in the first knockout round?

Arsenal: Bayern Munich, Benfica, Bayer Leverkusen, Porto, Sevilla, Real Madrid.

Leicester City: Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Benfica, Bayer Leverkusen, Sevilla, Real Madrid.

Manchester City: Atletico Madrid, Napoli, Monaco, Juventus, Borussia Dortmund

As for Tottenham Hotspur, they are set to be seeded in the Europa League’s Round of 32.


Follow @NicholasMendola

UEFA Champions League wrap: BVB stuns Real late, Spurs onto Europa

Tottenham's Harry Kane, 2nd right, is congratulated by his teammates after scoring his side's 2nd goal during the Champions League group E soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and CSKA Moscow at Wembley stadium in London, Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2016. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein)
AP Photo/Frank Augstein
Leave a comment

The knockout round draw is just days away, and we finally have the 16 teams who remain in the chase for the UEFA Champions League title.

[ MORE: Examining Leicester, Man City ]

Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 CSKA Moscow

Mauricio Pochettino‘s men came out of the gates hard at Wembley, which made it all the more surprising when Alan Dzageov gave CSKA a surprise 1-0 lead.

No fear, a dangerous Dele Alli was rewarded with a goal before Harry Kane made it 2-1 by halftime. And CSKA goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev recalled the last World Cup by pushing an Alli header in for an own goal.

Porto 5-0 Leicester City

The hosts needed this one, and a much-weakened Leicester City did not.

Riyad Mahrez and Robert Huth weren’t in the 18, and Danny Simpson, Christian Fuchs, and Marc Albrighton all started on the bench.

That made it a bit easier for Porto to strike, and Andre Silva, Jesus “Tecatito” Corona, and Yacine Brahimi gave the Portuguese side a healthy three-goal lead at the break. Silva added a second in the second half, this time from the spot.

Real Madrid 2-2 Borussia Dortmund

Karim Benzema scored a pair of goals, the second on a picture-perfect cross from James Rodriguez, as the reigning champs looked set for seeded status for the first knockout round.

But Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang made it 2-1 and Cristiano Ronaldo dinked a surefire insurance goal off the far post with 12 minutes to go. Aubameyang then found a sliding Marco Reus in the 88th minute to give Thomas Tuchel’s a share of the lead and the capture of the group.

Elsewhere

Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Monaco
Juventus 2-0 Dinamo Zagreb
Legia Warsaw 1-0 Sporting CP
Lyon 0-0 Sevilla
Club Brugge 0-2 Copenhagen

All said, Juventus and Sevilla clinch knockout round berths, while Spurs, Legia Warsaw, Copenhagen and Lyon head to the Europa League.

Follow @NicholasMendola

Champions League AT HALF – Leicester, Dortmund trail; Spurs lead (video)

Real Madrid's Henrico Casemiro, center right, jumps for a high ball during the Champions League, Group F, soccer match between Real Madrid and Borrusia Dortmund at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Spain, Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2016. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)
AP Photo/Francisco Seco
Leave a comment

CONCACAF is representing in the UEFA Champions League’s final group stage match day, with a Mexico star scoring and a USMNT teenager getting the start at the Bernabeu against Real Madrid.

[ LIVE: Champions League scores

Porto 3-0 Leicester City

Andre Silva isn’t hurting his transfer value, burying his third group stage goal against a weakened already-through Leicester. El Tri star Jesus Corona added to the advantage in the 25th minute, and Yacine Brahimi has the third.

Club Brugge 0-2 FC Copenhagen

The Danes are making a statement of intent, and will be hoping Leicester comes back against Porto.

Real Madrid 1-0 Borussia Dortmund

Christian Pulisic gets the start in a match where a draw would be enough for BVB to win the group. That’s not happening right now, as Karim Benzema beat his mark to a terrific 28th minute pass from Dani Carvajal.

Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 CSKA Moscow

Spurs started dominant, only to go down after the half hour mark. Dele Alli pulled them level, and Harry Kane put ’em ahead. A loss puts them out of both the UCL and Europa League.

Elsewhere
Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Monaco
Juventus 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb
Legia Warsaw 1-0 Sporting CP
Lyon 0-0 Sevilla

Follow @NicholasMendola

LIVE – UCL group stage finale: Leicester, Tottenham both in action

LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 06:  Harry Kane of Tottenham Hotspur celebrates scoring his sides first goal with team mates during the Premier League match between Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur at Emirates Stadium on November 6, 2016 in London, England.  (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Leave a comment

The final matchday of the 2016-17 UEFA Champions League group stage takes place on Wednesday with two Premier League teams in action.

[ LIVE: Champions League scores

Leicester City is already through and has topped Group G with Claudio Ranieri‘s men securing a top spot for next Monday’s Round of 16 draw. The Foxes face FC Porto in Portugal with the hosts needing just a point to secure second place in the group and their spot in the last 16. Putting their Premier League worries aside, Leicester will aim to stay unbeaten throughout all six of their UCL group games.

Tottenham Hotspur wish they could say the same but Mauricio Pochettino‘s men have already crashed out of the Champions League with one game to go. They host CSKA Moscow at Wembley Stadium in Group E with Spurs needing just a draw to secure a place in the Europa League knockout stages. Bayer Leverkusen and AS Monaco has already qualified from Group E but Spurs’ Harry Kane insists they now want to go on and win the Europa League.

[ MORE: Permutations for each UCL group ]

Elsewhere Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund clash to decide top spot in Group F, while Juventus, Lyon and Sevilla are all still in the mix in Group H with the final game to come.

Below is a full schedule for Wednesday’s Champions League games, with each game kicking off at 2:45 p.m. ET.

You can follow live commentary and stats of each game by clicking on the link above, while we will have reaction right here on ProSoccerTalk.


Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League schedule

Group E
Tottenham Hotspur vs. CSKA Moscow
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Monaco

Group F
Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund
Legia Warsaw vs. Sporting Lisbon

Group G
FC Porto vs. Leicester City
Club Brugge vs. FC Copenhagen

Group H
Juventus vs. Dinamo Zagreb
Lyon vs. Sevilla