The hard truth in Seattle: Sigi Schmid is almost certainly gone without a big series reversal

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Sigi Schmid is one of American soccer’s real success stories, a self-made coaching figure who made his way up from college coaching ranks into MLS, starting a neat little collection of MLS Cups, Supporters Shield trophies and U.S. Open Cup crowns upon arrival into domestic soccer’s top tier.

And he’s about to lose his job.

Maybe, that is. There are two big caveats here, starting with the fact that Seattle is only “mostly dead,” which, as we know, is “slightly alive.” So, the Sigi Sounders are not out of the playoffs just yet. His Sounders are certainly half a chalk outline right now, trailing Portland by a goal and staring at the tough road leg in this home-and-away conference semifinal. But teams can and have come back in these aggregate goals MLS series following a bummer loss at home; teams that lost the opening leg at home are 3-for-11 in manufacturing a memorable rally.

The other caveat is that fans and media won’t make this choice. That’s on owner Joe Roth and on GM and minority owner Adrian Hanauer, along with the Sounders’ big cast of very serious, buttoned up, corporate types.

But is there really any other outcome here? ESPN’s Adrian Healey and I talked about it Sunday, just hours after the tough loss to Portland. He agreed that Schmid was highly unlikely to survive a series loss here.

Indeed, it seems so unlikely that Schmid could survive the weight of the October collapse, one now appearing to bleed into November, if Schmid cannot scare up a massive result in Portland, where the Sounders must overcome a 2-1 deficit when the teams clash at Jeld-Wen on Thursday.

(MORE: What we learned from Portland’s win at Seattle)

Not at a club of such big ambition. Not at a club with more fans in the stands than at two or three other MLS grounds combined on most weekends.

Quick review of the facts:

Seattle Sounders FC remains on the hunt for meaningful post-season success. The Sounders did get past last week’s elimination match against Colorado, which is something. Still, the lack of larger playoff success looks like the really big pole that the sputtering Schmid mobile is likely to smash into.

The history of making hay with big signings is sketchy at very best. The relative success around CenturyLink of DPs Freddie Ljungberg, Fredy Montero, Alvaro Fernandez, Blaise Nkufo and Mauro Rosales (that’s not mentioning Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins out of the current crop) is all up for big debate. At best.

The October fade was a horrible sight for Sounders fans, who had gotten their hopes up thanks to the summer surge, one that was punctuated by Clint Dempsey’s hardy and hopeful arrival.

source:  If this conference semifinal cannot be overturned, it’s a dreaded double whammy. Because it’s against Portland, the rival to top all rivalries in MLS. It’s already a scab to be picked at; Joshua Mayers’ good research reveals that Portland’s weekend win was that organization’s first victory in a competitive match in Seattle since 2005.  Yeah, that’s gonna leave a mark.

Finally, there’s this: Seattle soccer made a lot of noise about the Galaxy’s starry alignment of soccer luminaries, the highly recognized likes of Landon Donovan, David Beckham and Robbie Keane. When would the Sounders get their bite off the soccer icon apple?

Well, here’s Dempsey now … and how ‘bout them apples?

His arrival removed the last, uh … what word can we use here other than “excuse?”  Let’s go with “obstacle.”  Either way, stamp it with “removed!”

Not all of this is Schmid’s fault necessarily. But it’s a case where the negative weight of it all will almost certainly reach critical mass. The call for change will create its own momentum, and it just seems so painfully unlikely that Seattle’s only coach (in MLS soccer that is) will survive.

(MORE: Schmid sounded a bit defensive near season’s end)

CONMEBOL WCQ: Venezuela, Bolivia teetering on elimination

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CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying is always a challenge, and this World Cup cycle is no different.

With six teams currently separated by a mere five points under leaders Brazil, everything is left to play for as Round 14 hits South America.

[ MORE: Messi could face suspension from CONMEBOL ]

Here’s a look at what’s on the docket for Tuesday:

Bolivia vs. Argentina — 4 p.m. EDT

It wasn’t pretty at all, but La Albiceleste picked up a crucial three points against Chile, which could produce a morale lift for Argentina given their past struggles against the reigning Copa America holders.

Lionel Messi’s actions from the match could harm the Albiceleste though, with the Barcelona man reportedly facing sanctions from CONMEBOL for verbally abusing a linesman.

Meanwhile, Bolivia is in desperate need of a win in La Paz, and anything but three points could potentially end La Verde’s hopes of reaching Russia 2018.

Ecuador vs. Colombia — 5 p.m. EDT

It took a long time for Colombia to crack the Bolivia backline on Thursday but a late run from Juan Cuadrado helped set up the eventual winner from James Rodriguez, and kept Los Cafeteros in the top four.

Ecuador didn’t have the same fortunes though four days ago after falling to a very game Paraguay side. La Tricolor have gone winless in three of its last four World Cup qualifiers, leaving Gustavo Quinteros side with little margin of error against the Colombians.

Chile vs. Venezuela — 6 p.m. EDT

Chile’s qualifying struggles continued on Thursday after falling to La Albiceleste in a closely-contested match. Arturo Vidal’s six goals leave the Bayern Munich midfielder third in all of CONMEBOL this campaign, but the Chileans still sit on the outside looking in at the moment and in sixth place.

Venezuela is teetering on the edge of elimination, and a loss against Chile would all but seal their fate of missing out the World Cup. After reaching the quarterfinals at last summer’s Copa America Centenario, La Vinotinto have failed to replicate that form this qualifying campaign with just one win to show.

Top scorer Josef Martinez is no longer with Venezuela after suffering an injury in Thursday’s 2-2 draw against Peru, creating a major void in the side’s attack.

Brazil vs. Paraguay — 8:45 p.m. EDT

The Selecao continue to score at a lightning pace this qualifying campaign with 32 goals in the first 13 rounds of play. Despite conceding early to Uruguay on Thursday, Brazil responded emphatically with four goals, and most notably Paulinho‘s hat-trick.

Elsewhere, Paraguay kept itself within striking distance of the top five after its 2-1 win over Ecuador. The side is just two points behind fifth place Ecuador.

Peru vs. Uruguay — 10:15 p.m. EDT

Los Incas have not reached a World Cup since 1982, and although the team is just five points behind fifth, they need to pick up victories. Ricardo Gareca will be pleased with his side’s resiliency against Venezuela on Thursday, but more draws simply won’t do with only four rounds remaining after Tuesday.

Uruguay still sits in a solid second position after Thursday’s slip up against Brazil but another defeat could be potentially disastrous for La Celeste, who are just three points above sixth place Chile. However, Edinson Cavani’s nine goals leads all of CONMEBOL and Peru has allowed the third-most goals this campaign (22).

Ugly scene forces Ivory Coast-Senegal match to be abandoned

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Monday’s international friendly between Ivory Coast and Senegal turned out to be anything but that when the match was interrupted towards the tail end.

Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

The fixture was abandoned with two minutes remaining in regulation after pitch invaders disrupted the the match by getting past security guards and began chasing after players from both sides.

The score was level at 1-1 in the 88th minute when the disruptions occurred, causing the referee to halt play at the Stade Sebastien Charlety in Paris.

One of the intruders even managed to tackle Senegalese defender Lamine Gassama (as shown in the picture to the right).

Liverpool’s Sadio Mane gave Senegal the lead minutes into the second stanza after he converted from the penalty spot, while Cyriac Gohi Bi leveled the score at one apiece just minutes later.

Messi could face CONMEBOL suspension for verbal abusing official

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Already facing some uncertainty with a depleted roster, Argentina could face a significantly greater challenge.

[ MORE: Aguero left out of Argentina starting XI vs. Bolivia ]

Barcelona star Lionel Messi could face suspension after reportedly verbally abusing linesman Marcelo Van Gasse during the second half of Thursday’s 1-0 win over Chile.

UPDATED: Fox Sports Argentina is reporting that Messi will receive a two to four match suspension and will be effective for tomorrow’s match against Bolivia.

Messi was reported to CONMEBOL for yelling, “F*** off, your mother’s c***” at Van Gasse and refused to shake the official’s hand at the end of the match.

The officiating crew from the match didn’t initially include Messi’s rant in the post-match report, however, it was added on Monday and submitted to CONMEBOL.

The South American federation must now decide if and when it will punish Messi for his reported actions, and there is the potential that the world-class attacker could be suspended for Tuesday’s clash against Bolivia if the federation acts quickly.

There are several other scenarios though for CONMEBOL to action, including disregarding Messi’s verbal assault.

La Albiceleste currently sit third in World Cup qualifying on 22 points.

Arena speaks about USMNT turnaround, says “no secret formulas”

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It’s only been one competitive match since Bruce Arena regained control of the U.S. Men’s National Team and there’s already been a noticeable difference in form.

[ MORE: Three keys for the USMNT ahead of Panama clash ]

The former LA Galaxy manager wouldn’t have you believe that though following Friday night’s convincing 6-0 victory over Honduras in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.

“It’s nothing I can write a book on,” Arena said about his team’s turnaround in form against Honduras. “You have a sense of your group, and you go about doing your business. There’s no secret formulas to this stuff. Work together, take ownership in what you’re doing, treat them like responsible professional athletes, and you get on with your business.

He added, “They want to be successful. They want to play in a World Cup. Is that a recipe for success? I don’t know. I’m sure Honduras wants to play in a World Cup too.”

Arena, who took over for Jurgen Klinsmann following the U.S.’ collapse during the first two matches of the Hexagonal, is unbeaten in his first three games in charge since getting his job back with the Stars and Stripes.

Although there has been a considerable turnaround in the way the USMNT has performed in the first three matches of 2017, Arena wouldn’t stoop to comparing his style to that of Klinsmann.

“I’m not doing anything differently,” he said. “I’m not taking a survey [of the players]. I know it’s different. We lose tomorrow, there will be articles written that, ‘This a—— is letting these guys run loose.'”

“I have spent no time on the past. There’s nothing I can do about it. I kind of have a sense about things, but there’s no point in me spending time investigating what went on in the past. The idea was to get it going the right way from the start.”

Arena’s next test with the U.S. will be on Tuesday when the Yanks travel to Panama City to take on Panama.