us soccer

Tough draws and Groups of [Pain]: The math says we should just calm down

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Earlier today, PST’s main man Joe Prince-Wright noted the potentially tough road the U.S. will have to travel next summer. But look at it this way:

Belgium just qualified for their first major tournament since 2002. Colombia hasn’t been to a World Cup since 1998. Uruguay needed a playoff to qualify for Brazil 2014, and a Switzerland, while possessing some enviable young team, is one of the most curious seeded teams in recent memory. Come Dec. 6 in Bahia, there’s a 50-50 chance the United States will be drawn with one of these teams.

All four of those teams are quality sides (particularly the Belgians), but where you’re talking about a Group of Death, you’re usually talking about a quartet with a seeded superpower. A Germany. A Spain. A Brazil or Argentina. Can you have a true Group of Pain without a superpower? No, because one of the other groups will have one.

(Note: I just decided to start calling it Group of Pain. Group of Death is morbid, unimaginative, and played out, though I’m sure we’ll get there with Group of Pain.)

 Keep this in mind when you see people talking about the U.S.’s upcoming draw. As the best team in CONCACAF, the U.S. have a better chance than most at being drawn into a perceived Group of Pain, but part of that is due to their quality, part of that is due to the fact that France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal are floating around among the unseeded Europeans.

But if you accept these stipulations for a Group of Pain …

  •  It will require one of the four “big” seeds (Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Spain), as well as
  • One of the four big non-seeded Europeans (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal), and
  • (something we haven’t discussed yet) a team like Chile, Ghana, Ivory Coast, or Nigeria coming out of the last pot (assuming South America and Africa are bundled), then …

… you can do the math: Fifty percent chance of being drawn with a big seed; Fifty percent chance of being drawn with a big non-seeded European; Fifty percent chance of being drawn with a name out of the last pot. You’re talking about a one-in-eight chance of being in a/the Group of … Pain.

That said, the United States is almost destined to be put in a tough group. But guess what: It’s the World Cup. Most groups are tough, particularly for a team from CONCACAF, who have better odds than most of being drawn with two Europeans.

But tough groups aren’t Groups of Pain. Although there are exceptions, having three tough group stage games is just part of the competition.

Incidentally, I just did eight draws on that oh-so-popular draw simulator, here’s what I got:

  • US with … Uruguay, Cameroon, Italy
  • US with … Uruguay, Nigeria, Russia
  • US with … Brazil, Cameroon, Netherlands
  • US with … Belgium, Algeria, England
  • US with … Uruguay, Cote d’Ivoire, Bosnia-Herzegovina
  • US with … Uruguay, Cote d’Ivoire, Italy
  • US with … Germany, Ecuador, Russia
  • US with … Spain, Ecuador, Portugal

They’re all tough, but where I was expecting one “Argentina, Chile, Netherlands” combination, I got none, largely because there was always a 50-50 chance the U.S. would miss a big seeded team. With every simulation, there was always a more difficult group (though looking at other people’s draws, that’s not always the case). While that doesn’t guarantee anything on Dec. 6, the math tells us to keep calm and carry on.

Then again, your mileage may differ as to what constitutes a Group of …

Southampton 4-2 Manchester City: Southampton carves up City behind Mane hat-trick, Tadic service

during the Barclays Premier League match between Southampton and Manchester City at St Mary's Stadium on May 1, 2016 in Southampton, England.
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Manchester City clearly had one eye on the Champions League semifinals. It came at the expense of their chances to remain in the competition next year.

The visitors at St. Mary’s had the opportunity to lock up Champions League play next season with all three points, but instead Manuel Pellegrini rested a number of starters including Sergio Aguero and Kevin De Bruyne, and Southampton ripped them apart in a 4-1 win. Saido Mane grabbed a hat-trick and Dusan Tadic had a trio of assists as their attack swarmed a mistake-prone and clearly distracted Manchester City.

Both sides had spells in the opening 20 minutes, but Southampton appeared more dangerous. Shane Long made multiple appearances in front of the Manchester City goal, picking the pocket of Pablo Zabaleta to earn a corner on 15 minutes and shooting just wide of the near post in the 19th minute.

Frasier Forster was required to keep the game scoreless in the 20th minute as Kelechi Iheanacho stole the ball from Virgil van Djik on the touchline and found Raheem Sterling in space inside the box, but his shot was saved expertly by Forster.

[ MORE: Watch full PL match replays ]

It would be the in-form Long to take the lead in the 25th minute on a beautiful bit of play. A fantastic ball over the top of the City defense fell to a streaking Dusan Tadic, and his flick over the top met a sliding Shane Long, who beat Nicolas Otamendi for the opener.

They’d get a second just four minutes later on yet another sweet-looking goal, with Tadic getting yet another assist with a perfectly weighted ball for Saido Mane, who smacked it by Joe Hart from a tight angle.

[ MORE: Latest Premier League standings ]

Southampton continued to press and hold much of the meaningful possession, but Manchester City refused to capitulate, scoring a lifeline before halftime. With the ball in the Southampton penalty area, Cuco Martino saw the ball skip off his thigh and pop into the air, where Iheanacho latched onto it and headed it into the net.

[ MORE: Full lineups, stats, box score ]

It was a tough way for the hosts to go into halftime, as they had dominated much of the first half, but no matter, as they made amends. Following the break, Southampton restored their two-goal lead off a corner in the 57th minute as Van Djik’s header was tipped by Joe Hart off the crossbar. Jose Fonte whiffed at the rebound but Mane was there from point blank range to give Southampton a 3-1 lead.

Mane would complete his hat-trick in the 68th minute. Van Djik won the ball in the Southampton half to start the break, and Tadic picked up his third assist of the match as he slotted Mane through on goal for yet another clinical finish.

Manchester City got another back as Iheanacho bagged his second in the 79th minute with a wonderful curler from outside the box, but it was too little too late for the visitors.

Both teams fought until the final whistle, and it could have cost Jesus Navas his fitness as the Argentinian seemingly picked up a serious limp in the final few minutes.

VIDEO: Claudio Ranieri says he might miss Leicester City winning the Premier League

MANCHESTER, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 01:  Claudio Ranieri, manager of Leicester City applauds the fans after the Barclays Premier League match between Manchester United and Leicester City at Old Trafford on May 1, 2016 in Manchester, England.  (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
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Following Leicester City’s gritty draw with Manchester United at Old Trafford, the Foxes missed out on securing the Premier League trophy, but come tomorrow evening, they could still be celebrating.

With the point against United, their magic number is now two, meaning any dropped points by Tottenham wins Leicester City the league title. Tottenham travels to Stamford Bridge tomorrow to take on Chelsea, and should they fail to win, the trophy is Leicester’s.

But manager Claudio Ranieri, the hero in Leicester for guiding their beloved club to the unthinkable, might be the last to find out.

In his post-match comments, Ranieri said he could be on a plane during the Spurs game, therefore unable to find out the result until he lands. The reason? He’s going back to Italy to have lunch with his 96-year-old mother.

“I would like to watch to watch the match,” Ranieri said. “But I think I am on the flight back from Italy, and then it’s difficult for me to watch the match. Maybe when I landed, I will know the result.”

What a family man. No wonder his team plays like a close-knit unit.

AC Milan fights back for draw against Frosinone, but still falls out of European place

MILAN, ITALY - MAY 01:  Mario Balotelli of AC Milan reacts during the Serie A match between AC Milan and Frosinone Calcio at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on May 1, 2016 in Milan, Italy.  (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)
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AC Milan fought back from down 3-1 to earn a point at home against relegation candidate Frosinone, but by dropping points they’ve also dropped out of a European position.

Frosinone got goals from Oliver Kragl and Luca Paganini in the first half, and Federico Dionisi struck in the 54th minute to go 3-1 up. But Luca Antonelli scored in the 74th minute – just a minute after coming on for AC Milan – and Jeremy Menez finished a penalty in added time to pull level.

The draw, coupled with a 1-0 Sassuolo win against Verona, dropped the Rossoneri to 7th in the Serie A table, out of the Europa League places. They sit on 54 points, with Sassuolo on 55.

Contributing heavily to the final result was Frosinone goalkeeper Francesco Bardi, who saved a Mario Balotelli penalty and produced a host of acrobatic first-half saves to keep the Milan attack at bay.

AC Milan hardly has time to lick its wounds, with just three matches remaining, two against Juventus and Roma to close out the year. Meanwhile, the point for Frosinone is important but likely not enough as they fall four points back of Palermo who Sampdoria.

Watch Live: Southampton vs. Manchester City (Lineups & Live Stream)

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 28:  Raheem Sterling of Manchester City and Victor Wanyama of Southampton compete for the ball during the Barclays Premier League match between Manchester City and Southampton at the Etihad Stadium on November 28, 2015 in Manchester, England.  (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
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Manchester City has shuffled the deck, with five changes from last time out as Manuel Pellegrini and company travel to St. Mary’s to take on Southampton, live at 11:30 a.m. ET on NBCSN or live online at NBC Sports Live Extra.

Sergio Aguero is on the bench, while Kevin De Bruyne is not selected at all for City as Wilfried Bony is the man up top along with Kelechi Iheanacho in support. Jesus Navas is also among the substitutes, with Samir Nasri and Raheem Sterling among the starters.

WATCH LIVE: Southampton vs. Manchester City live online at NBC Sports Live Extra

David Silva is not included in the squad having suffered a hamstring injury, and while Yaya Toure has returned to fitness, he is not among those named.

For Southampton, three changes from their 4-2 win over Aston Villa dot the map, with Cuco Martina, Jordy Clasie, and Saido Mane all coming into the side. Charlie Austin is on the bench having returned from a hamstring problem, but Shane Long gets the nod to start, while Graziano Pelle does not appear.

A win for Manchester City would put them firmly in fourth at 67 points, seven clear of Manchester United with two more games to play.

LINEUPS

Southampton: Forster; Martina, Fonte, Van Dijk, Bertrand; Clasie, Wanyama, S.Davis, Tadic, Manè; Long.
Subs: Stekelenberg, Yoshida, Soares, Romeu, Ward-Prowse, Rodriguez, Austin.

Manchester City: Hart, Zabaleta, Otamendi, Mangala, Kolarov, Delph, Fernandinho, Nasri, Sterling, Iheanacho, Bony
Subs: 
Caballero, Sagna, Clichy, Demichelis, Fernando, Navas, Aguero