UEFA rules set up Arsenal, Manchester City for tough Champions League Round of 16 draws


Wednesday’s results left 16 teams soaring, those clubs having confirmed their place in the knockout round of UEFA Champions League. Come Monday? A few will be rue their knockout round draws, with two English clubs destined for nightmare match ups in the Round of 16.

By virtue of tough groups (and finishing just behind last year’s finalists, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund), Manchester City and Arsenal are in the runners-up pot – the pot that will be drawn against the eight winners from Champions League’s group stage. Those teams that were just good enough to make the final 16 but not good enough to win their groups? Yeah, Manchester City and Arsenal can’t draw them. They’ll be matched up against the best teams in Europe.

There are, however, two caveats. First, teams can’t be drawn against clubs they faced in group play. Been there, done that, moving on. Second, teams can’t be drawn against clubs from their own federations. If we are going to see rematches of games we see domestically (at least) twice a year, it’s going to be in the later rounds. Champions League’s exotic that way.

Unfortunately, come Monday, those rules will work against Arsenal and City. While each will be able to avoid one German team (Dortmund and Munich, respectively), they won’t be able to draw Manchester United in the Round of 16. They also won’t be able to raw Chelsea. Mileage will vary, but for many, those are the two easiest teams in the group winners pool. Not being able to draw them increases the odds City and Arsenal will be draw against one of the tournament’s true favorites.

Those favorites (in group order): Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Atlético Madrid, Barcelona. Some may see PSG and Atlético as the lessors of that group, but results say otherwise. Between league and Champions League results, these are the six standout teams in Europe. The fact that Arsenal and City can only draw them (and not Manchester United or Chelsea) leaves UEFA’s rules are working against them.

Who would you rather get, if you’re Arsenal? Paris Saint-Germain? Or Manchester United? And if you’re City: Wouldn’t you take Chelsea over a draw that could land you Barcelona, Real Madrid, or Dortmund? The Blues are tough, but they’re not on that level.

For the rest of the group stage runners-up, life is only slightly easier. Though they could also draw Chelsea or Manchester United … well, they could draw Chelsea or Manchester United. Those clubs may not being performing to Bayern’s level, but they’re still likely favorites in the Round of 16. Especially of they can’t draw Arsenal or City.

Here are the eight group stage winners and who they could draw on Monday.*

Atlético Madrid (Group G) – Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Olympiacos, Manchester City, Schalke, Arsenal, Milan
Barcelona (Group H) – Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Olympiacos, Manchester City, Schalke, Arsenal, Zenit St. Petersburg
Bayern Munich (Group D) – Galatasaray, Olympiacos, Arsenal, Zenit St. Petersburg, Milan
Borussia Dortmund (Group F) – Galatasaray, Olympiacos, Manchester City, Zenit St. Petersburg, Milan
Chelsea (Group E) – Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Olympiacos, Zenit St. Petersburg, Milan
Manchester United (Group A) – Galatasaray, Olympiacos, Schalke, Zenit St. Petersburg, Milan
Paris Saint-Germin (Group C) – Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Schalke, Arsenal, Zenit St. Peteresburg, Milan
Real Madrid (Group B) – Bayer Leverkusen, Olympiacos, Manchester City, Schalke, Arsenal, Zenit St. Petersburg, Milan

* – Technically, it will be the runners up “drawing” the group winners. On Monday, the runners-up will be drawn at random, one-by-one. Then, the teams eligible to be matched up with them will be put into a bowl, with one name being drawn.

How can Man United qualify for last 16 of Champions League?

Wayne Rooney, Manchester United FC
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Heading into the their final UEFA Champions League Group B game, Manchester United hold their destiny in their own hands, but any slip-up could mean it’s Europa League on Thursday nights for Louis Van Gaal‘s men.

[ MORE: Champions League standings ]

The Red Devils would have advanced to the knockout stage with a victory over third-place PSV Eindhoven on Wednesday, but slumped to an ugly 0-0 draw instead.

[ MORE: Three things we learned from Man United 0-0 PSV ]

So, here’s all of the scenarios for the final matchday of the group stage, away to Wolfsburg, in which United would advance to the round of 16 advance:

  • A Man United win will see Man United finish top of Group B
  • A Man United draw, coupled with a PSV draw or loss (vs. CSKA Moscow), will see Man United finish second in Group B
  • A Man United draw, coupled with a PSV victory, will see Man United finish third in Group B
  • A Man United loss, coupled with a PSV loss, will see Man United finish second in Group B
  • A Man United loss by more than one goal, coupled with a PSV draw, would see Man United finish third in Group B
  • A Man United loss, coupled with a PSV win, would see Man United finish third in Group B

[ MORE: Champions League schedule

There are your scenarios for Man United as it’s pretty simple to break it down: Win, and they go through. Fail to win, and their fate is completely in the hands of PSV.

VIDEO: Can Leicester stun the world? Man United title favorites?

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The Foxes are top of the Premier League and are led by a surging Jamie Vardy but how long can they keep shocking the world?

With six tough games coming up between now and the start of 2016, Claudio Ranieri‘s men will be pushed to their limit but so far this season they’ve been sensational and Vardy has equaled Manchester United legend Ruud van Nistlerooy’s record of scoring in 10-straight PL games.

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Can he make it 11 in a row on Saturday (Watch live, 12:30 p.m. ET on NBC and online via Live Extra) when United visit the King Power Stadium? As for the Red Devils, they sit in second place and are just one point behind the flying Foxes’. Louis Van Gaal‘s men have certainly flown under the radar so far and our churning out wins at an impressive rate.

Jenna Corrado and I discuss that and more in the latest edition of PST Extra. Click play on the video above to see our chat in full.

Men in Blazers podcast: The Leicester fairytale goes on

Men In Blazers - Sept. 22
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Rog and Davo revel in another chapter of the Leicester City fairytale, break down Liverpool’s shock dismantling of Manchester City and discuss Arsenal’s slip against West Brom.

Listen to the latest pod by clicking play below.

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Pellegrini updates status of Joe Hart’s hamstring injury

Joe Hart, Manchester City FC
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Joe Hart was forced to leave Manchester City’s 1-0 defeat to Juventus in UEFA Champions League play on Wednesday due to a hamstring injury, which he seemed to incur while making a spectacular one-on-one kick-save late in the second half.

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Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini confirmed after the game that Hart’s injury is indeed a hamstring issue, and went on to say that he would need further tests once the team arrives back in Manchester to determine the severity and how long, if at all, City and England’s no. 1 would be out of action.

Man City, currently third in the Premier League on 26 points, will host eighth-place Southampton at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday (Watch live at 10 a.m. ET on NBCSN and online via Live Extra).