Three weeks ago, we were all assuming the worst about Radamel Falcao, and with good reason. We’ve seen enough players go down with major knee injuries to know a six-month recovery is just too ambitious to assume. So when the key to Colombia’s hopes at this summer’s World Cup hurt his knee on Jan. 22, we entertained the worst-case scenario. How could the Cafeteros survive this summer without the biggest star?
It’s a question that may never have to be answered. According to today’s reports, Falcao has emerged from the first phase of his recovery with reason for optimism, with the surgeon who performed his Jan. 25 surgery giving the Monaco number nine “a 55% chance of playing in the World Cup.”
Via its website, AS Monaco issued an update on their star striker’s status:
AS Monaco FC and the player would like to thank all the people who took care of Falcao to Porto, in particular the medical department of Doctor Jose Carlos Noronha and club of FC Porto.
Radamel Falcao is going to pursue from this Thursday the 2nd phase of his recovery in the sport clinic in Madrid in close collaboration with the medical department of AS Monaco FC.
Colombia’s first game at World Cup 2014 is June 14 against Greece. To be match shape by kickoff in Belo Horizonte, Falcao’s going to have to be ready, playing friendlies, and training weeks before that. Given he had surgery at the end May, we’re talking about a turnaround that’s closer to four months than six.
But let’s also be clear about what we’re talking about here, because implicitly, the conversation is going in two directions:
- Will Falcao play this summer? As in be a bench option for José Pekerman? Somebody who can be available off the bench by the team’s last group stage game against Japan on June 24 (potentially, the team’s final match). This is a much lower bar. It doesn’t require full match fitness, which means he won’t have to be training weeks ahead of the tournament. If the only goal we’re talking about is merely playing at this summer’s tournament, he doesn’tt have to start training until early- or mid-June. That’s a much lower standard than …
- Will Falcao be Falcao this summer? Obviously, this is a long shot, but for Colombians, it should be the biggest concern. The team also has Jackson Martínez (and we talked about the other options while fixating on Fredy Montero’s chances of making the team), but when you look at the goal rates Pekerman’s options have produced on the international level, Colombia has Falcao, Teo Gutierrez, then a huge drop off. Talent, they can replace. Producing with that talent? That’s a much higher bar, one that makes the nature of Falcao’s recovery as important as his mere availability.
The good, if implied news: Falcao seems to have a chance, which is more than we thought three weeks ago. Even in May, we still won’t know if the Monaco star will be ready for Brazil, but if the odds in mid-February are 55/45 in Falcao’s favor, Colombia has hope for their World Cup future.