Premier League Scenarios: Title Chase, Race for Europe and Relegation

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With three weeks remaining in the Premier League it’s all to play for in the title chase, race to qualify for Europe, and bid to avoid relegation.

Below is your primer for the major scenarios to be aware of going into Matchweek 35.

TITLE CHASE

The Premier League title chase is down to three clubs: Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City.

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Below are the scenarios for all three clubs.

I. Liverpool are the only club in control of their title opportunity

  • If Liverpool win their remaining 3 matches (including win v. Chelsea on Sunday), they win the title.
  • If Liverpool earn 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw) in their remaining 3 matches, they win the title.
  • The earliest Liverpool can clinch the title is May 5 at Crystal Palace. If Liverpool win v. Chelsea and City drop points v. Palace on Sunday, Liverpool can clinch the title with a win at Palace next Monday, regardless off City’s result at Everton next Saturday. If Liverpool win v. Chelsea and City lose v. Palace on Sunday, Liverpool can clinch the title with a win or draw at Palace next Monday, regardless off City’s result at Everton next Saturday.
  • If City continue winning, Liverpool cannot clinch the title until the final day of the season (May 11).
  • NOTE: If Liverpool lose v. Chelsea and City lose or draw v. Palace, Liverpool still control their title chances.

II. If Liverpool lose v. Chelsea and City win at Palace, no club would be in full control of their title opportunity. Both City and Liverpool could reach a maximum of 86 points, in which case the title would be decided by the goal difference tie-breaker

  • The above is the only scenario this weekend in which Liverpool lose control of winning the title outright on points.
  • City (+56) currently have a better goal difference than Liverpool (+52).

III. There is no scenario in which Chelsea can finish the weekend in control of their title chances

  • If Chelsea lose v. Liverpool on Sunday, they are mathematically eliminated from title contention.
  • If Chelsea draw or win v. Liverpool on Sunday, they would still need “help” from BOTH City and Liverpool to win the title.

EUROPEAN QUALIFICATION

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I. Thus far only Liverpool have qualified for next season’s UEFA Champions League. Chelsea and City could each qualify this weekend, under the following scenarios

  • Chelsea can guarantee a Champions League berth with: a) a win or draw v. Liverpool and Everton loss, or b) a win v. Liverpool and Everton loss or draw, or c) a win v. Liverpool and Arsenal loss or draw.
  • Manchester City can guarantee a Champions League berth with: a) a win and Arsenal loss, or, b) a win and Everton loss or draw.

II. Tottenham will be eliminated from Champions League contention under the following scenarios 

  • A loss v. Stoke City or an Arsenal win v. Newcastle.
  • NOTE: A loss or an Arsenal win also guarantees that Tottenham will finish below Arsenal for the 19th straight season.

III. Europa League Qualification

  • Both 5th and 6th place finishers will earn a Europa League spot for next season.
  • Everton are guaranteed at least a Europa League spot with a win or draw v. Southampton or a Manchester United draw or loss v. Norwich City.

RELEGATION/SAFETY

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I. No club can be guaranteed relegation this weekend

II. Mathematical safety entering Saturday is 42 points

  • If West Ham win and Norwich or Sunderland drop points then West Ham are guaranteed safety.
  • Bottom-3 clubs’ finishing points if they all win their remaining matches: Cardiff City (39 pts), Fulham (39 pts), Sunderland (41 pts).
  • NOTE: Sunderland host Cardiff on Sunday, so both cannot win remainder of their matches.

 

Serie A: Juve keep winning to remain 1 point back of Napoli

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TURIN, Italy (AP) Juventus closed the gap on Serie A leader Napoli back to just one point as the six-time defending champion eased past Genoa 1-0 on Monday.

Douglas Costa scored in the 16th minute, the first conceded by Genoa in five league matches. It was a less than convincing performance from Juventus but it was never really troubled, as goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny – standing in for the still-injured Gianluigi Buffon – was little more than a spectator.

“What was important was to win,” Juventus coach Massimiliano Allegri said. “At the end there was a bit of nervousness because we were lacking in energy a bit.

“We could have finished off the match in the first half, and again with a couple of occasions after the break. We didn’t manage to so compliments to Genoa.”

The battle for the Serie A title is shaping into a two-horse race. Juventus moved 10 points clear of third-placed Lazio, although the capital side has a match in hand.

“The season is still long and all those who are behind us can still get back into the race,” Allegri said. “It was important to stay in Napoli’s slipstream.”

Juventus needed to win after Napoli beat Atalanta 1-0 on Sunday.

Allegri’s side started brightly and had an early chance to take the lead but Genoa goalkeeper Mattia Perin did well to keep out a free kick from specialist Miralem Panic.

However, it did not take much longer to strike. Douglas Costa passed out left to Mario Mandzukic, who played a delightful return ball for the Brazil midfielder to slot into the bottom left corner.

League Cup semi: Man City take 2-1 lead into 2nd leg vs. Bristol

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Manchester City can move one step closer on Tuesday to claiming their first of four potential trophies this season, when Pep Guardiola‘s men take on Bristol City in the second leg of the League Cup semifinal.

[ MORE: Monday’s transfer rumor roundup | Sunday | Friday ]

After coming back to beat the Robins in the first leg at home, Man City must now go on the road and take care of business to reach the Feb. 25 final at Wembley Stadium. As he has done so many times — and so famously — in the sky blue of City, Sergio Aguero grabbed the late winner (91st minute — WATCH HERE) 14 days ago.

For a few not-so-insignificant periods of the game, Bristol were very much the aggressors and appeared more likely to make the score 2-0 than for City to get back to 1-1. Bobby Reid converted from the penalty spot in the 44th minute after her was brought down under John Stones‘ wild, sliding tackle. Kevin De Bruyne leveled things up 10 minutes into the second half, setting the stage for Aguero’s late heroics.

[ MORE: Alexis-for-Mkhi swap complete | De Bruyne’s new contract ]

Since the first leg on Jan. 9, City have failed in their bid to finish the PL season with an unbeaten record before bouncing back to beat Newcastle United on the weekend, courtesy of a hat trick from Aguero — Guardiola quotes, from Sport24:

“I said many times it was going to happen, we can lose, so (it is) important the reaction we have. Still we have 42 points to play (for). It is 14 games. It is a lot of games to play and difficult games like Saturday and like Liverpool. It is important to show the team is still there but I don’t have the feeling we give up.

“We want to go through to the final in the (League) Cup and the FA Cup, so (we have) a lot of games but I think the people have the desire to keep going, to keep going, to keep going.”

[ MORE: One dream January signing for each top-six side ]

Bristol, meanwhile, have fallen on hard times: it’s been nearly a month (Boxing Day, to be specific — five losses, one draw) since Lee Johnson’s side last won a game in any competition, and they’ve fallen from second to fifth in the Championship table — Johnson quotes, from the Guardian:

“We don’t want to be brave losers, we want to compete to win. It’s up to the players to be focused and tactically aware, and who knows what will happen if we can show the same quality as we have shown in the previous rounds?

“We have to make sure we’re really bold. If you’re going to deliver a corner, do it like you mean it. I’d rather fail bold than fail timid. We know we have to score. I hope Pep picks his absolute best team and we can give them a right go. I’m not sure you could go and play an under-23 side against us at the moment and I think he’ll know that.”

The winner of Arsenal versus Chelsea (0-0 after the first leg) awaits in the final.

The 2 Robbies: Alexis-Mkhitaryan Swap Becomes Reality

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Robbie Earle and Robbie Mustoe react to the Alexis Sanchez-Henrikh Mkhitaryan swap deal between Arsenal and Manchester United finally becoming reality (0:20), Swansea’s stunning 1-0 victory over Liverpool (9:20), Southampton’s much-needed draw with Spurs (22:30) and Watford’s decision to part ways with Marco Silva (36:20). The gents end the show sharing their memories of the late English striker, Cyrille Regis (39:45).

Join Earle & Mustoe on The 2 Robbies Football Show, Saturdays at 5pm ET. Listen on the NBCSports Radio App and call 855-323-4622 in the U.S. for lively passionate debate.

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Inter Milan sign Barcelona midfielder Rafinha on loan

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MILAN (AP) Inter Milan completed the signing of Barcelona midfielder Rafinha on loan until the end of the season, with a view to a permanent move.

Inter can sign the Brazil international permanently for $43 million plus $3.7 million in bonuses, and said on Monday that option “must be taken up before the end of the season.”

Rafinha, who was born in Sao Paulo, had been at Barcelona since 2006, when he joined its youth team. He spent the 2013-14 season on loan at Celta Vigo.

After nine months out after surgery on his right knee, he made his first appearance of the season last week as a late substitute in Barcelona’s Copa del Rey defeat at Espanyol.

“It’s an important stage in my life,” he said, “and I had a lot of desire to approach this new phase in my career.”

Inter has slipped to fourth in Serie A, 11 points behind leader Napoli.

It could slip out of the Champions League places if Roma wins its match in hand on Wednesday.

“I hope to play in as many matches as possible and help the team to reach our objective which is Champions League qualification,” Rafinha said.