Premier League Scenarios: Title Chase, Race for Europe and Relegation

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With three weeks remaining in the Premier League it’s all to play for in the title chase, race to qualify for Europe, and bid to avoid relegation.

Below is your primer for the major scenarios to be aware of going into Matchweek 35.

TITLE CHASE

The Premier League title chase is down to three clubs: Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City.

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Below are the scenarios for all three clubs.

I. Liverpool are the only club in control of their title opportunity

  • If Liverpool win their remaining 3 matches (including win v. Chelsea on Sunday), they win the title.
  • If Liverpool earn 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw) in their remaining 3 matches, they win the title.
  • The earliest Liverpool can clinch the title is May 5 at Crystal Palace. If Liverpool win v. Chelsea and City drop points v. Palace on Sunday, Liverpool can clinch the title with a win at Palace next Monday, regardless off City’s result at Everton next Saturday. If Liverpool win v. Chelsea and City lose v. Palace on Sunday, Liverpool can clinch the title with a win or draw at Palace next Monday, regardless off City’s result at Everton next Saturday.
  • If City continue winning, Liverpool cannot clinch the title until the final day of the season (May 11).
  • NOTE: If Liverpool lose v. Chelsea and City lose or draw v. Palace, Liverpool still control their title chances.

II. If Liverpool lose v. Chelsea and City win at Palace, no club would be in full control of their title opportunity. Both City and Liverpool could reach a maximum of 86 points, in which case the title would be decided by the goal difference tie-breaker

  • The above is the only scenario this weekend in which Liverpool lose control of winning the title outright on points.
  • City (+56) currently have a better goal difference than Liverpool (+52).

III. There is no scenario in which Chelsea can finish the weekend in control of their title chances

  • If Chelsea lose v. Liverpool on Sunday, they are mathematically eliminated from title contention.
  • If Chelsea draw or win v. Liverpool on Sunday, they would still need “help” from BOTH City and Liverpool to win the title.

EUROPEAN QUALIFICATION

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I. Thus far only Liverpool have qualified for next season’s UEFA Champions League. Chelsea and City could each qualify this weekend, under the following scenarios

  • Chelsea can guarantee a Champions League berth with: a) a win or draw v. Liverpool and Everton loss, or b) a win v. Liverpool and Everton loss or draw, or c) a win v. Liverpool and Arsenal loss or draw.
  • Manchester City can guarantee a Champions League berth with: a) a win and Arsenal loss, or, b) a win and Everton loss or draw.

II. Tottenham will be eliminated from Champions League contention under the following scenarios 

  • A loss v. Stoke City or an Arsenal win v. Newcastle.
  • NOTE: A loss or an Arsenal win also guarantees that Tottenham will finish below Arsenal for the 19th straight season.

III. Europa League Qualification

  • Both 5th and 6th place finishers will earn a Europa League spot for next season.
  • Everton are guaranteed at least a Europa League spot with a win or draw v. Southampton or a Manchester United draw or loss v. Norwich City.

RELEGATION/SAFETY

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I. No club can be guaranteed relegation this weekend

II. Mathematical safety entering Saturday is 42 points

  • If West Ham win and Norwich or Sunderland drop points then West Ham are guaranteed safety.
  • Bottom-3 clubs’ finishing points if they all win their remaining matches: Cardiff City (39 pts), Fulham (39 pts), Sunderland (41 pts).
  • NOTE: Sunderland host Cardiff on Sunday, so both cannot win remainder of their matches.

 

Toronto FC beats Crew 5-0 to extend unbeaten streak to 8

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TORONTO (AP) Victor Vazquez scored twice and Toronto FC routed the Columbus Crew 5-0 on Friday night to extend its unbeaten streak to a franchise record-matching eight games.

[ MORE: Pulisic pleased with U.S. Soccer’s improved landscape ]

Toronto (8-1-5) is 7-0-1 since its lone league loss of the season, a 2-1 decision in Columbus on April 15. Columbus (6-7-1) has lost five of seven since topping Toronto.

Justin Morrow and substitutes Jonathan Osorio and Jordan Hamilton also scored for MLS-leading Toronto. The Canadian team also was unbeaten in eight games (4-0-4) from May 8 to July 10, 2010.

Toronto was reduced to 10 men in the 81st minute when midfielder Marky Delgado was red-carded for a studs-up tackle on Columbus captain Wil Trapp. Osorio and Hamilton then scored to pad the lead for Toronto in its sixth shutout of the season.

Toronto played without the starting forward tandem of Sebastian Giovinco (injured) and Jozy Altidore (suspended for yellow card accumulation). Defender Nick Hagglund also is injured.

Agent: Barcelona offered more than Real for Vinicius Junior

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If Vinicius Junior can become half the player at Real Madrid that Neymar has lived up to be at Barcelona, Los Blancos will be pretty pleased.

[ MORE: Man City closing in on Monaco’s Silva ]

Real closed the deal for the 16-year-old Brazilian this week, but there were several other lucrative offers on the table, according to the player’s agent, Frederico Pena.

[ MORE: Totti leaves future uncertain heading into final Roma match ]

That includes bitter Spanish rivals Barcelona.

The agent stated that the Blaugrana did in fact offer a higher deal to acquire the Brazilian, however, he felt it would have complicated matters further to seek a greater offer from Real.

“There is practically unanimous view of the deal as a success,” Pena said. “If anybody gets criticised it is Real Madrid, for the risk they have taken, but they are sure that it will work. There were other clubs interested, and one offered to pay more money … Barca’s remuneration package offer for the player was higher than Real Madrid.

“But as we had reached an agreement with Real, we did not want to make this last push for them to match it. That could have embittered the relationship. Many people think it is crazy what Madrid are doing, but they were not alone in this craziness. They were not the only ones willing to pay this much for Vinicius.”

Pena also clarified as to why Vinicius chose Real over Barcelona, citing the player’s excitement about the development of Los Blancos during recent seasons under manager Zinedine Zidane and prior.

“Because Vinicius liked Madrid’s project better. There is always the feeling that players choose based on financial reasons, but that is not true. I assure you of that. Real Madrid’s negotiating posture was better.”

Real is on the verge of winning its third UEFA Champions League trophy in the last four seasons as the club prepares to face Juventus in the upcoming final.

Zidane’s men also won La Liga during the 2016/17 campaign.

Pulisic pleased with U.S. Soccer’s improved landscape

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U.S. Soccer has come a long way over the years, and one of the nation’s most promising young players recognizes the progress the United States has made.

[ MORE: Man City acquire Monaco’s Silva after passing medical ]

Christian Pulisic, who plays for Bundesliga side Borussia Dortmund, is one of several young talents that U.S. hopes to finally bring the American men a moment of glory on the biggest of stages — the World Cup.

The 18-year-old has done just about everything a player of his age could do. He’s played in one of the top leagues in the world, appeared in various UEFA Champions League matches and now he’s likely on pace to appear in the 2018 World Cup, assuming the USMNT advances out of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.

The U.S., who have reached the World Cup during seven straight cycles, have come a long way in a short period of time, and Pulisic is happy with the improving U.S. Soccer landscape.

“It’s been big flaw of ours in the soccer department that a lot of our best athletes go and play other sports,” Pulisic told The Guardian. “But I think young players have seen me, and others, go over to Europe and play in some of the best leagues — and MLS is improving so much too.

“There’s so much potential and I think it’s changing: we’ve had some bigger athletes in the past but I don’t think that defines us anymore.

“We’re going to keep moving forward, developing young players and we’re going to have a really good shot in the next few years.”

During this past Bundesliga season, Pulisic recorded three goals and added six assists for a club that has become well known for its high-powered offensive attack.

Report: Kyle Walker a top target for Manchester City

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Manchester City could be looking to bolster its backline further this summer, and the Citizens could turn to Tottenham for help.

[ MORE: Man City closing in on acquiring Monaco’s Silva ]

According to ESPN FC, Pep Guardiola‘s side is growing more and more enamored with Spurs defender Kyle Walker and believes City can acquire the experienced outside back prior to the 2017/18 Premier League season.

With City already losing Pablo Zabaleta and Bacary Sagna since the end of the PL season, Guardiola will have to address the club’s lack of depth at outside back.

Several other big clubs have been considered in the running for Walker’s services, including Chelsea, Manchester United and Bayern Munich.

The 26-year-old has been at White Hart Lane since joining Spurs in 2009 from Sheffield United and has made 222 appearances for the club in that span.