Champions League: Real Madrid force Bayern Munich to leverage the value of home field

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The quarterfinals were a reminder about the importance of home field. All of Atlético Madrid, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, and Real Madrid performed dramatically better in their own friendly confines, so much so that a 1-0 loss on the road in UEFA Champions League’s semifinals wouldn’t have held up after leg one. Having learned nothing from the last round, we’ve come to see Real Madrid’s one-goal win in leg one of the team’s semifinal with Bayern as reason to doubt the holders. In reality, a one-goal deficit may still leave Bayern in pole position.

Chelsea turned around a 3-1 deficit against Paris Saint-Germain to reach the semifinals. Atlético were held at the Nou Camp before winning leg two against Barça. Bayern were held at Old Trafford before, after a scare, knocking off Manchester United at the Allianz. Real Madrid built up enough of a lead on Borussia Dortmund to withstand the Germans’ assault in Westphalia. All four quarterfinalists met some level of resistance on the road. All four overcame it to win their quarterfinals.

Why should these semifinals be any different? In theory, as the tournament moves on, teams paired against each other should be more evenly matched, making dramatic swings in either direction less likely. In practice, home field advantage has made a difference; at least of late. Over the last two years — four semifinals — teams returning home for their second legs have improved on their leg one performances Even Barcelona, last year, “improved” on a 4-0 loss at Bayern Munich with a 3-0 defeat at home.

Those results aren’t enough to say Bayern Munich will turn around the 1-0 deficit they were handed at the Santiago Bernabéu, but it’s a note of caution. While Real Madrid looked strong in their home leg — earning an early one-goal lead over the Champions League holders before conceding two good chances late — it would be foolish to think El Real’s success necessarily translates onto its second leg. Their semifinal match in Munich could be completely different.

“We are playing against a great team with a small advantage, so we are not that stupid as to think we have already qualified,” Real Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti said. “It’s going to be really hard.”

If the teams’ 2013-14 performance is any indication, there may be something to the home field advantage angle. Though in league (where the sample sizes are much greater), Bayern has shown little difference between home and road performances, Real Madrid has been noticeably worse away from the Bernabéau. Whereas the Merengues have gone 15-0-2 (W-D-L) at home, los Blancos have posted a 14-4-2 record on the road. Their goal difference is +44 on home soil; +22 abroad.

Overall, it hints that Bayern’s dogmatic, imposing style came be imposed onto any environment, something that makes sense given the extreme, outlying nature of their approach. When you employ a system that’s so obsessed with ball retention, it should mitigate some of the differences in performance away from home. There are no adjustments to be made.

source: APFor a team like Real Madrid, however, there may not be enough stylistic differentiation to make them immune to home-road splits. Though they are obviously better and more talented than your typical European team, their style may not be so different that we have reason to think they can overcome the broader statistical evidence. They may be worse away from home.

On Tuesday, Ancelotti’s task is to transcend that. He’ll have a fully healthy Cristiano Ronaldo at his disposal; a fully healthy Gareth Bale. For the first time since Ronaldo was injured in early April, the Real Madrid head coach will have his full team at his disposal. Whereas in leg one Bale was restricted to a substitute’s role, Tuesday will see Real Madrid at full pomp.

Whether that matters, however, may be less up to Real Madrid than its hosts. Also having all its main weapons at its disposal, Bayern Munich will be facing the same question it’s been asked all season: If we don’t care about scoring, can you break us down? 

For most of the year, it’s a question that’s been asked by inferior opposition ready to settle of a draw. On Tuesday, it’s one of the most talented sides in the world ready to settle for a draw.

“They will seek to defend their advantage for 90 minutes,” Guardiola said, “but I’m not sure how. We were desperate to score an away goal. Now we have to attack even more – we have no other option. I’m convinced they’ll want to play as well.”

If Bayern can’t break through, it will be less about Real Madrid than themselves. The team’s had eight months to prepare for this moment: a team willing to forgo everything to keep them off the scoresheet. If Pep Guardiola’s team can’t overcome that approach, it will speak volumes about Ancelotti’s Champions League’s prowess as well as Bayern’s lack of progress since the former Barça boss took over.

“We cannot do it by ourselves tomorrow …,” Guardiola said. “The team want it, I want it, the fans want it, and together we can achieve it.”

What’s next for Julian Green, and what’s gone wrong?

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Julian Green will have a new team again soon, in all likelihood.

A Stuttgart publication says Green is on the transfer market this month, just eight months after moving from Bayern Munich to the then-2.Bundesliga side for less than $500,000.

Now 22, Green is three and a half years removed from Jurgen Klinsmann’s long campaign to get him into a USMNT shirt. It’s been a little less time since he scored in extra time against Belgium in the World Cup, but also less than a year since he scored goals in consecutive USMNT matches. That shouldn’t be overlooked.

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Green scored one goal in 10 appearances for Stuttgart, who was promoted to the Bundesliga at the end of last season. He fell out of favor there, but was far from poor. Green completed 87 percent of his passes and averaged 1.3 dribbles per game (only four teammates had more, though 10 matches is a smaller sample size).

Before that, he spent parts of three seasons with Bayern Munich and made just four appearances, taking a loan to Hamburg in 2014-15 that saw him banished to Hamburg II after just five appearances.

What gives? Whether attitude or skill, Green has a lot of work to do to get back to a level where he’s a reasonable USMNT call-up (Green has a respectable three goals in eight call-ups, netting against Cuba and New Zealand in Oct. 2016). Still, it’s far from over for Green at 22.

There are legit questions here, as the list of not high-profile players Bayern Munich has used in its senior team at a young age and blossomed elsewhere isn’t necessarily impressive (at least relatively speaking). Nils Petersen, Thomas Kraft, and Sandro Wagner are exceptions to the rule. Better put: Bayern has a really good idea what it’s doing when it lets young players walk, and it begs discussion on the best path for Green.

It seems likely he could get a move to another 2.Bundesliga club, and there’s an outside shot he could get a look in the top flight. It would be interesting to know where the interest lies abroad. Would it be hard to acquire a work permit for France or Spain (England seems a hard sell)? Could a move to a free-flowing Eredivisie club work?

Obviously Major League Soccer clubs would welcome his talent and it’s difficult to imagine he wouldn’t be a useful piece in the United States’ top tier, even if on a short-term move as he looks to regain confidence. Would Green see it as below him?

Arsenal’s Wilshere sent-off after brawling in U-23 match vs. Man City

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Arsenal midfielder Jack Wilshere isn’t standing around waiting for his next team, he’s fighting.

Period.

Wilshere got into with several members of Manchester City’s U-23 side in a match on Monday, with the English midfielder taking exception to a hockey-style hip check from City’s Matthew Smith.

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Shoving the 17-year-old Smith, Wilshere saw the City man take a tumble and stay prone. Still riled up, Wilshere tangled with City’s Tyreke Wilson.

Wilshere and Wilson were sent off.

Given his injury history, we’re not surprised Wilshere took exception to a hard and needless foul in a U-23 match.

The Arsenal man has been linked with moves to Newcastle, West Ham, AC Milan, and Sampdoria, but Arsene Wenger wants to keep Wilshere at the Emirates Stadium.

Report: PSG to dodge FFP by signing Mbappe on loan, sending Moura to Monaco

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Paris Saint-Germain’s fight to win a UEFA Champions League will receive a major boost from its main Ligue 1 rivals.

Reigning champions AS Monaco have been frustrated by phenomenal and combative forward Kylian Mbappe seeking a move to join Neymar at PSG. Mbappe was reportedly kicked out of Monaco training this week.

That move is very difficult for PSG to pull off thanks to Financial Fair Play; Les Parisiens spent more than $260 million to sign Neymar from Barcelona.

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The way around it? Sky Sports says Monaco will reportedly loan Mbappe to PSG with an agreement to sell the 18-year-old striker permanently after this season. PSG midfielder Lucas Moura would go the other way for this season.

If that rings a bit hollow to those who’d like to see FFP work against massive clubs stockpiling talent, it should; This is hardly any different from spending all the money in one window when considering that Mbappe would join Neymar and Edinson Cavani effective this season.

Incredibly, Sky also has the notion that PSG will bring Fabinho to the Parc des Princes (Yes, from Monaco).

If Mbappe ends up in Paris — forget Fabinho for a second — PSG would be favored to get past its UCL quarterfinals blockade (Les Parisiens were eliminated in the Round of 16 last season by Barcelona after four-straight quarterfinal ousters).

UEFA Champions League playoffs: Differing levels of comfort

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Only one of 20 playoff-contending clubs has a strong foot in the UEFA Champions League group stage with 10 second legs set for this week.

That’s Scottish champions Celtic, who took a 5-0 lead for manager Brendan Rodgers last week at Celtic Park and heads to the capital of Kazakhstan for a Tuesday date with Astana.

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As for the rest, there are varying levels of comfort. Napoli leads Nice 2-0 and didn’t concede an away goal to the French side, so the Serie A side has to feel pretty good. Liverpool edged Hoffenheim 2-1 in Germany and brings two goals home to Anfield. That, too, is confident footing.

Steaua Bucharest and Sporting CP are the only sides level, scoreless after a match in Portugal.

But Olympiacos is in Croatia and a goal away from being on the wrong foot after a 2-1 win at home to Rijeka, and Hapoel Be’er Sheva has the same situation in Slovenia against Maribor.

At risk? Three high-profile away trips and the same number of group stage home paydays. The losers drop into the Europa League group stage.

Tuesday
All matches at 2:45 p.m. ET unless noted

Astana vs. Celtic (Celtic leads 5-0) — 11:30 a.m. ET
Rijeka vs. Olympiacos (Olympiacos leads 2-1)
Nice vs. Napoli (Napoli leads 2-0)
Sevilla vs. Istanbul Basaksehir (Sevilla leads 2-1)
Maribor vs. Hapoel Be’er Sheva (Hapoel leads 2-1)

Wednesday
All matches at 2:45 p.m. ET

Copenhagen vs. Qarabag (Qarabag leads 1-0)
CSKA Moscow vs. Young Boys (CSKA leads 1-0)
Slavia Prague vs. Apoel Nicosia (Apoel leads 2-0)
Liverpool vs. Hoffenheim (Liverpool leads 2-1)
Steaua Bucharest vs. Sporting CP (First leg 0-0)