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Stat wizard Nate Silver tabs a World Cup winner, US group odds are up

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He can tell you who will probably win presidential elections, so even though sport is a little trickier than which way dyed-in-the-wool tribes will vote for leaders, it’s worth paying attention when Nate Silver gives his odds.

The fivethirtyeight.com stat nerd whiz, who gives us fellow geeks analytics fans so much joy, is in the house with his World Cup projected winner and it’s…the same country many people with eyeballs are tabbing.

He’s looking to the nation that has lost one match since 2013, the hosts, Brazil.

Here’s the main reason we like Silver’s nods better than most. From fivethirtyeight.com:

 

  • It’s predictive, rather than retrospective. It’s not trying to reward teams for good play — it’s trying to guess who would win in a match played tomorrow.
  • It weights matches on a varying scale of importance based on the composition of lineups. Sometimes even friendly matches are taken quite seriously, such as if a team is playing against a historic rival, or if it badly needs a tune-up before an upcoming tournament. Sometimes even tournament matches are blown off if a team has already clinched its position.

Silver gives the United States a 36 percent chance of getting out of Group G, and a .4 chance of winning the World Cup. So apparently he should “get out of the country,” too, eh, Michael Wilbon? So Silver’s odds for the U.S. and its advancement are 10 percent higher than bookies… what does he think about Germany, Portugal and Ghana?

However, there may be a bit of irrational fear around Ghana. The African teams did little to distinguish themselves in the 2010 World Cup despite a wonderful opportunity in South Africa. They’re hard to peg because they don’t play competitive matches against the rest of the world all that often, but SPI does not have them on the rise this year.

Portugal? SPI is more down on the Team of Five than it seems it should be. In SPI’s defense, Portugal was a little underwhelming in World Cup qualifying, drawing twice with Israel and once with Northern Ireland. And the team isn’t deep: While Cristiano Ronaldo is one of the best two or three footballers in the world, Portugal has no other player who clearly belongs in the top 100.

Germany? Well, they’re really good. But as an offense-minded squad, the team might be ever so slightly more prone toward letting in a soft goal and drawing (although probably not losing) a game that it shouldn’t. Keep hope alive, America.

Keep hope alive, indeed. And, for the sake of us outcasts analysts, read the entire article. We need to encourage Silver to keep with the Beautiful Game.

International roundup: Schweinsteiger, Keane say goodbye; Denmark bags five

Germany's national team throws their captain Bastian Schweinsteiger into the air after he played his last match for the national team in Moenchengladbach, Germany, Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2016. Germany won the friendly soccer match against Finland with 2-0. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner)
AP Photo/Martin Meissner
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Two mainstays of the international game are done with that part of their career following shutout wins on Wednesday, just two of several friendlies early in this international break.

[ MORE: Five big Deadline Day signings ]

Germany 2-0 Finland

Max Meyer picked up from his remarkable Olympics by firing home, and Mesut Ozil also scored for the Germans in a match that was not about the winner. Bastian Schweinsteiger called it a day on his international career in the win, his 121st cap. The Manchester United man finishes his career with 24 goals, a World Cup title and a EURO runner-up finish. Not too shabby.

Ireland 4-0 Oman

ROI all-time leading scorer Robbie Keane fittingly ended his tenure as an international player with yet another goal, bringing his career tally to 68 goals in 146 caps. Stoke City’s Jon Walters scored twice for the Boys in Green, and Robbie Brady (Norwich) also netted in the win.

Denmark 5-0 Liechtenstein

It took the hosts a half-hour to break down the visitors, but a pair from Feyenoord striker Nicolai Jorgensen opened the floodgates and Andreas Cornelius, Viktor Fischer and Jens Stryger Larsen finished the scoring in a blowout at the CASA Arena in Horsens. It was Larsen’s first cap.

Elsewhere
Turkey 0-0 Russia
Albania 0-0 Morocco
Estonia 1-1 Malta
Norway 0-1 Belarus
Lebanon 1-1 Jordan

Men In Blazers Podcast: Rashford at the death, Spurs draw Reds, Conte-Pep perfect

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Rog and Davo relive Manchester United’s last gasp win at Hull, break down the 1-1 draw between Spurs and Liverpool, and recap perfect starts for Pep and Antonio Conte at their new clubs.

All of the MiB content — pods, videos and stories can be seen here, but to really stay in touch, follow, subscribe, click here:

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Five most impactful signings of Premier League Transfer Deadline Day

CURITIBA, BRAZIL - JUNE 26:  Islam Slimani of Algeria (L) celebrates scoring his team's first goal with Essaid Belkalem during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil Group H match between Algeria and Russia at Arena da Baixada on June 26, 2014 in Curitiba, Brazil.  (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)
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From panic buys to the resolution of long sagas, Wednesday’s Transfer Deadline Day was eventful and actually exciting.

Some deadline days see a flurry of loan deals and little else, but we had a bit of everything on Wednesday.

Moussa Sissoko finally found a home away from Newcastle, Mario Balotelli is off to France, and David Luiz (!!!) returned to Chelsea.

[ MORE: Every PL move from Deadline Day ]

But, in all honesty, the big names aren’t the Wednesday deals we think will really cut the muster. For those, read on.

5. Enner Valencia, loan with option to buy from West Ham to Everton — Watch out for this one, as the Hammers’ man could pair with Romelu Lukaku to be a potentially devastating problem for opposing Premier League defenses. With Ross Barkley and Idrissa Gueye in the midfield, Everton has done a ton to strengthen its run toward European qualification.

4. Marcos Alonso, permanent from Fiorentina to Chelsea — He’s solid, but more importantly represents an upgrade in depth and experience for the Blues’ back line. Alonso is the sort of back who fits Antonio Conte‘s desires, and will work well behind N'Golo Kante.

3. Dieumerci Mbokani, loan from Dynamo Kyiv to Hull — While Robbie Brady, Timm Klose, and Nathan Redmond got a lot of the headlines, Mbokani was a powerful part of the Canaries’ attack in an ill-fated campaign. At 30 he’s far from a long-term fix, but Mbokani should provide strength and skill to a Hull City side facing a very challenging campaign. Per 90 minutes, no one on Norwich touched him last year (courtesy advanced stats site Squawka):

http://www.squawka.com/football-player-rankings#performance-score#player-stats#english-premier-league|season-2015/2016#norwich#all-player-positions#16#37#10#0#90#08/08/2015#17/05/2016#season#1#all-matches#total#desc#90
Squawka.com

2. Jack Wilshere, loan from Arsenal to Bournemouth We want so badly to make this our No. 1 for many reasons, but can’t take that risk thanks to the risk presented by Wilshere’s injury history. For Jeff Mostyn, Eddie Howe, and the Cherries to win the rights to bring Wilshere to town is big for a lot of reasons. That Arsene Wenger allowed him to go is another. Frankly, this could be a game changer for two clubs’ PL fortunes.

— Honorable mention — Wilfried Bony is a nice pick-up for Stoke, but Bruno Martins Indi gives the club freedom to use Geoff Cameron in other ways. … Georges-Kevin Nkoudou is another good piece for Spurs’ attacking depth ahead of the UEFA Champions League.

  1. Islam Slimani, permanent from Lisbon to Leicester — The Algerian striker was sold on King Power Stadium by fellow Desert Warriors attacker Riyad Mahrez, and now gives the Foxes even more danger whether counterattacking or taking their talents to the opposition. With Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez, and Ahmed Musa joining Slimani, Leicester has the depth to dance in Europe.

Who spent most, made profits on transfers in Premier League this summer?

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - AUGUST 13:  John Stones of Manchester City in action  during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Sunderland at Etihad Stadium on August 13, 2016 in Manchester, England.  (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
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After a record $1.4 billion was spent in the Premier League this summer, most of the PL’s 20 clubs were throwing around money like it was going out of fashion.

[ MORE: Summer transfer grades ]

There were some huge fees dished out with the two Manchester teams spending almost half a billion dollars between them on transfer fees alone. Let that sink in.

So, that being said, with the summer transfer window slammed shut it is time to crunch the numbers and see who spent the most, who sold well and take a look at the net spend for each team.

[ MORE: Every Deadline Day deal ]  

Below is the summer transfer business from all 20 teams with their total money spent on transfers, incoming transfer fees and net profit/loss listed via information from Transfermarkt.


  1. Man City – Spent: $237.6 million (incoming: $24.3 million) – Net = -$213.3 million
  2. Man United – Spent: $185 million; (incoming: $7.1 million) – Net = -$177.9 million
  3. Chelsea – Spent: $157.6 million (incoming: $45.7 million) – Net = -$111.9 million
  4. Arsenal – Spent: $126 million (incoming: $9.2 million) – Net = -$116.8 million
  5. Tottenham – Spent: $92 million (incoming: $46.9 million) – Net = -$45.1 million
  6. Liverpool – Spent: $89.1 million (incoming: $88.4 million) – Net = -$0.7 million
  7. Leicester City – Spent: $83.1 million (incoming: $59.4 million) – Net = -$23.7 million
  8. Watford – Spent: $75.2 million (incoming: $33 million) – Net = -$42.2 million
  9. West Ham – Spent: $69.5 million (incoming: $13 million) – Net = -$56.5 million
  10. Crystal Palace – Spent: $66.4 million (incoming: $56 million) – Net = -$10.4 million
  11. Everton  – Spent: $60.4 million (incoming: $62 million) – Net = +$1.6 million
  12. Southampton – Spent: $57.9 million (incoming: $84.6 million) – Net = +$26.7 million
  13. Bournemouth – Spent: $44.3 million (incoming: $23.6 million) – Net = -$20.7 million
  14. Swansea City – Spent: $42.2 million (incoming: $54.2 million) – Net = -$12 million
  15. Sunderland – Spent: $35.5 million (incoming: $8.3 million) – Net = -$27.2 million
  16. West Brom – Spent: $29.6 million (incoming: $11.7 million) – Net = -$17.9 million
  17. Middlesbrough – Spent: $27.9 million (incoming: $6.5 million) – Net = -$21.4 million
  18. Burnley  Spent: $27.5 million (incoming: $27.5 million) – Net = -$0 million
  19. Stoke City – Spent: $25.7 million (incoming: $2.5 million) – Net = -$23.2 million
  20. Hull City – Spent: $16.4 million (incoming: $6 million) – Net = -$10.4 million