Numbers are just numbers and even advanced statisticians know that projections are just likelihood. They can’t account for every single mishap or moment of brilliance — find me the Opta projection for Netherlands 5, Spain 1 — but they give a nice indication of what could go down in any given event.
Earlier, our Richard Farley provided a brilliant and extensive breakdown of each scenario that could come from Group G’s final act on Thursday, so we know everything that can happen.
But what do the betting services, advanced stats and others say?
FiveThirtyEight.com, the respected Nate Silver site, says the USMNT has a 76 percent of advancement… and uses further reasoning to say that number may be low. Of course, it must be noted that the same site gave the US a mere 36 percent chance of advancing from Group G before the tournament started.
So how about the bettors? Well, consider this Tweet:
London betting site odds to qualify to knockout round (Group G): Germany 1/100 USA 1/5 Ghana 4/1 Portugal 10/1
— Mike McGrew (@CincySporting) June 23, 2014
As for the others, I’ll go with the whole gut instinct thing. Walking away from the match with my friends, I kept saying I’d be surprised if the US doesn’t go through. Maybe this is a by-product of me being the only PST writer to predict a US advancement from Group G (back-pat), but my gut says yes.