In previewing Spainโs Confederations Cup semifinal against Italy, we noted that with the possible exception of Portugal at last yearโs European Championships, no team had been able to go toe-to-toe with Spain and survive. Yes, Switzerland (World Cup 2010) and the United States (Confederations Cup 2009) had beat La Furia Roja in competitive matches, but they did so by employing a low-percentage approach that gave them the proverbial puncherโs chance. Like Holland in the 2010 World Cup final, they didnโt exactly play their game.
Yet in the span of four days, weโve seen two teams stay true to themselves, stand flat-footed in front of the world champs, and survive. Other teams have done this in friendlies โ Italy and France are two that come to mind โ but Italyโs semifinal performance was the first time since Portugal weโve seen a team truly trouble the Spaniards.
And then Sunday, Brazil not only troubled Vicente del Bosqueโs side, they routed them. A goal in the second minute followed by a half of pressure led to a 2-0 lead by intermission. Scoring two minutes into the second half, Brazil couldnโt have made it look simpler. It was an unfathomably easy win over a team many consider to the best of all time.
Since thereโs no way to know whether this was just an off day or the first cracks in the dam, itโs of little use to proclaim this is the end of the Spanish armada. It might be. Results as dramatic as these often hint at something bigger. But without the context of future matches, we canโt draw broad conclusions. All we can do is look at possibilities.
As it concerns their future dominance, the most concerning part of todayโs performance was their midfieldโs ineffectiveness. Yes, their defense was troublesome, but thatโs never hindered them before. And although Iker Casillas was bad, Spain has a slew of other goalkeepers. But they donโt have another Xavi Hernandez. They donโt have another Andres Iniesta. If other teams can find ways to limit that duoโs effectiveness, be it through athleticism and physicality (like Brazil) or pure numbers (like Italy), Spain is in as much trouble as their doubters may proclaim. You donโt need super talent, only a particularly type of talent, to implement either of those approaches.
Compounding this possibility โ and as this point, itโs nothing more than a distant possibility โ is Spainโs unwillingness to develop another option. Jesus Navasโs wide play could be thought of as a significant change, but there was a time before Vicente del Bosque where Spain used to make better use of their forwards, be they David Villa, Daniel Guiza, or an in-form Fernando Torres. Now, with Spain rarely playing real wingers and seemingly accepting forwardโs a synonym for black hole (theyโre still starting Torres), there are no alternatives. Theyโve imposed their own tactical limitations, making themselves a sitting duck.
Itโs a testament to Spainโs talent that they havenโt been exploited before, exactly why predictions of their demise are so confounding. We can talk Xs and Os all day, but those are ultimately mere plans which make teams more or less likely to win. At some point, Iniesta can just better than his opponent. Same for Xavi. Same for any of the myriad of options del Bosque has at his disposal. Even if that doesnโt mean reintegrating a player like Fernando Llorente, Spain is more than capable of adjusting.
The question is whether they will. Their lack of adjustments over the last five years is both understandable and whatโs led to this point of doubt. Is this a flaw in their DNA, something that canโt be changed without compromising what makes them Spain? Or will Spain evolve?
Or, is this result just a one-off? Spain is old. Their Barcelona and Real Madrid-heavy squad has played an unprecedented number of games (club and country) during Spainโs run, and unaccustomed to the Brazilian heat, La Roja may have wilted. Had they not played four games leading into the Brazil match, or if they had more preparation ahead of the games (as they will at next yearโs World Cup), perhaps we wouldnโt even be having this conversation.
We are, in fact, having this conversation, though. Brazil proved Spain was not only mortal but potentially vulnerable: exploitable. While itโs too early to know the extent to which Spain have faded, based on the lofty stature they held after their game against Uruguay, itโs fair to say they have faded. If only a little.
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