Strength of schedule matters. Since this should go without saying, I risk entering the realm of mansplaining just by bringing it up, but it’s something often overlooked this early in the season, even if this point in the season is where an easy schedule will have its biggest influence.
Just look at the top of each conference. In the East, you have a Houston team that’s been able to rack up six points and a plus-five difference with home games against the Revolution and Impact. This weekend’s results in New England and Montréal only reinforced the idea that the standings (and, our rankings) may have overvalued Houston’s hot start.
It’s the same story in the West. FC Dallas has seven points in three games, but its wins have come against Montréal and Chivas USA. Óscar Pareja’s team got a point in Kansas City, but it was against a Sporting squad that’s been juggling commitments. Dallas deserves credit for their start, but proper credit considers their level of competition.
As games go by and we learn more about teams, perceptions need to be adjusted. In Week 1, Vancouver blew out New York, a result that earned them a spot high in our rankings. With time we’ve seen the Red Bulls’ struggles go beyond one game. And with Houston, that 4-0 win on opening night over New England looked different once the Revs went their next 180 minutes without a goal.
It works the other way, too. Toronto’s win in Seattle looks better after the Sounders’ performance in Quebec, while Sporting’s 1-0 over San Jose looks very good when you consider that same team took a Champions League semifinalist to penalty kicks three nights before.
The point: We need to stay mentally nimble in this early portion of the calendar. The unknowns vastly outnumber the knows, part of the reason teams keep jumping around this table.
Here’s our Power Ranking, after Week 3 of the MLS season: