Stats don’t lie: Spanish clubs almost certain of Champions League success

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Ahead of the UEFA Champions League group stage kicking off on Tuesday, it seems as though the giants from La Liga have little to worry about.

In a study run by Infostrada, reigning Champions Real Madrid, last season’s runners up Atletico and Barcelona will all comfortably make it out of the group stages.

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The number crunching reveals that Real Madrid have a 98.6 percent chance of making it out of Group B, while Barcelona have a 98.5 percent of advancing from Group F and Atletico are 95.3 percent certain of negotiating a path from Group A.

As for the Premier League teams, Chelsea are the most likely to make it to the last 16 with last season’s semifinalists having a 93.5 percent chance of progressing from Group G. Arsenal come next with 81.4 percent, then Manchester City with 73.4 percent and Liverpool aren’t far behind on 72.6 percent.

So on reflection the PL teams were handed a much tougher draw in the group stages than their Spanish counterparts, while the fact that their Spanish opponents are also ranked higher in Infostrada’s EuroClub Index also helps.

The study also revealed that Atheltic Bilbao’s chances of progressing improved the most after the group stage draw as they previously had a 42 percent chance but now sit at 61 percent.

Take a closer look at the numbers in the table below. Some pretty interesting percentages, right? As German and English giants collide in the group stage, nothing is set in stone right now. Well, unless you’re one of the Spanish clubs…