MLS playoff picture breakdown: What are your team’s odds?

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It’s that time of year where matches-in-hand and remaining opponents have MLS fans sweating the prospects of their favorite club.

No MLS team has more than six matches left on the docket, nor less than four. Only two clubs have clinched their spots in the playoffs, while only six teams are eliminated from contention or face odds so silly a clown wouldn’t take them.

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As a bizarre aside note, while Chivas USA’s odds of making the playoffs are literally less than a tenth of a single percent, can you believe there are scenarios where the Goats could technically make it despite their miserable run? It all ends this weekend, most likely, but it’s possible nonetheless.

With the help of the Sports Club Stats site, let’s take a look at the percentages.

THE WEST:

Real Salt Lake can join Seattle and L.A. as playoff teams with a draw or win against Vancouver, while a Whitecaps win still won’t really hurt the Utah club. A Whitecaps loss to Real drops their playoff odds to 15 percent, while a win boosts them to 42.

FC Dallas is off but gave itself a big boost by knocking off Seattle midweek. The Timbers can move up to 86 percent chance of playoffs with a win at Toronto FC.

Western Conference
Team GP W D L GF GA GD Home Away PTS
Seattle – x 29 17 3 9 53 44 9 10-1-3 7-2-6 54
Los Angeles – x 29 15 9 5 59 31 28 10-3-1 5-6-4 54
Real Salt Lake 29 13 10 6 49 36 13 9-5-1 4-5-5 49
FC Dallas 30 14 6 10 52 40 12 11-1-3 3-5-7 48
Portland 29 9 12 8 52 48 4 4-8-3 5-4-5 39
Vancouver 29 8 13 8 36 39 -3 6-5-3 2-8-5 37
Colorado 29 8 7 14 40 53 -13 6-4-4 2-3-10 31
San Jose 28 6 10 12 33 41 -8 5-5-5 1-5-7 28
Chivas USA 29 6 6 17 23 54 -31 3-2-9 3-4-8 24

THE EAST:

source: AP
Will Defoe’s return help TFC’s playoff hopes?

Much busier over here, with games-in-hand meaning Toronto is still very much lurking (and two other clubs are hopeful of gaining in-hand hope).

TFC faces a massive swing, where a win over Portland boosts its odds over 50 percent, a draw sinks them to 28 and a loss to 20.

The Red Bulls are in pretty good shape, but a defeat of Los Angeles would make them a near certainty for the playoffs. Life’s also good for the Revs if New England gets a point or more tonight in KC.

Columbus needs revenge against Montreal in Ohio, or it risks its odds dipping below 50 percent. Meanwhile, a Philly win would boost them to a mere 45 percent.

Eastern Conference
Team GP W D L GF GA GD Home Away PTS
D.C. 29 14 6 9 45 34 11 9-3-2 5-3-7 48
Sporting KC 29 13 6 10 43 34 9 5-6-3 8-0-7 45
New England 29 13 3 13 41 40 1 9-2-4 4-1-9 42
New York 29 10 11 8 48 42 6 8-4-2 2-7-6 41
Columbus 29 10 10 9 41 36 5 7-4-4 3-6-5 40
Philadelphia 29 9 11 9 45 43 2 5-7-2 4-4-7 38
Toronto FC 28 10 7 11 39 43 -4 6-2-6 4-5-5 37
Houston 28 9 6 13 33 50 -17 7-4-3 2-2-10 33
Chicago 28 5 16 7 37 43 -6 3-10-2 2-6-5 31
Montreal 29 6 6 17 34 52 -18 6-3-6 0-3-11 24