Who will win the Premier League? We crunch the numbers

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With Leicester City sitting top of the Premier League table and five points ahead of Tottenham Hotspur heading into late March, the title picture is becoming clearer.

[ PLAYBACK: Two-horse title race

Claudio Ranieri believes all four teams are still in it, but many believe it will be one of Leicester or Spurs to win it all.

Both Arsenal and Manchester City have slipped up massively in recent weeks with plenty of dropped points, and it seems like the title race is now a straight battle between Leicester and Spurs.

Or is it…

[ VIDEO: Premier League highlights ] 

Below we predict the outcome of the remaining games for the current top four and crunch the numbers to work out how many points each team will have on the final day of the season.

Man, it’s going to be tight heading into the final game of the season if we’re right…


Leicester City: 1st place, 63 points
They have taken the PL by storm all season long but is anybody else worried about their goals drying up? They’ve scored just five goals in their last four games and although they’ve kept three clean sheets in that run, the fine margins can turn quickly. No PL team has won more games (12) by a one-goal margin this season, but could an end of season wobble cost them?

Mar. 19 at Crystal Palace – Win
Apr. 3 vs. Southampton – Draw
Apr. 10 at Sunderland – Draw
Apr. 17 vs. West Ham – Lose
Apr. 24 vs. Swansea City – Win
May 1 at Man United – Draw
May 7 at Everton – Draw
May 15 at Chelsea – Lose

TOTAL POINTS AT END OF PL SEASON: 73 points, third


Tottenham Hotspur: 2nd place, 58 points
Spurs have been the model of consistency this season. Solid at the back and Harry Kane leading the line superbly up front, Mauricio Pochettino‘s team work so hard for each other. By our calculations they can afford to drop points in three games and still, just about, win the title.

Mar. 20 vs. Bournemouth – Win
Apr. 2 at Liverpool – Lose
Apr. 10 vs. Man United – Win
Apr. 18 at Stoke City – Draw
Apr. 25 vs. West Brom – Win
May 2 at Chelsea – Draw
May 7 vs. Southampton – Win
May 15 at Newcastle – Win

TOTAL POINTS AT END OF PL SEASON: 75 points, first


Arsenal: 3rd place, 52 points
The Gunners have fallen off the wagon in a big way. Just one win from their last four games says as much, and although they will pick up some morale-boosting wins we still see them failing to get to the 70-point marker. Question is, will that be enough for a place in the top four?

TBD vs. West Brom – Win
Mar. 19 at Everton – Draw
Apr. 2 vs. Watford – Win
Apr. 9 at West Ham – Lose
Apr. 17 vs. Crystal Palace – Win
Apr. 24 at Sunderland – Draw
Apr. 30 vs. Norwich City – Win
May 7 at Man City – Lose
May 15 vs. Aston Villa – Win

TOTAL POINTS AT END OF PL SEASON: 69 points, fourth


Manchester City: 4th place, 51 points
Manuel Pellegrini‘s men have a habit of making late season surges and despite recent struggles, I can see them going unbeaten for the rest of the season. They may draw a few of the games I expected them to win, but with a game in hand and if they win four of their next five, don’t write off City just yet. They have previous you know…

Mar. 20 vs. Man United – Win
Apr. 2 at Bournemouth – Win
Apr. 9 vs. West Brom – Win
Apr. 16 at Chelsea – Draw
Apr. 24 vs. Stoke City – Win
May 1 at Southampton – Draw
May 7 vs. Arsenal – Win
May 15 at Swansea City – Win
TBD at Newcastle United – Win

TOTAL POINTS AT END OF PL SEASON: 74 points, second