Scenarios for USMNT after winning Group A of Copa America Centenario

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The United States men’s national team is off to Seattle after the Yanks won Group A of the Copa America Centenario.

Opening the night in danger of missing the knockout rounds, the 10-man Yanks held off Paraguay 1-0 before watching Costa Rica beat Colombia 3-2.

The U.S. won the group on goal differential, and now waits to see what happens Sunday in Group B.

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Who will they face Thursday? The runner-up of Group B, which is far from settled ahead of Sunday’s finales.

Brazil leads Group B on goal differential and plays No. 2 Peru. Both teams have four points, so a draw will give the group to Brazil unless Ecuador makes up six goals worth of difference with a big win over Haiti.

Ecuador can still finish first or second, but needs a win for either opportunity to come true.

Let’s further simplify:

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JUNE 11: John Brooks #6,Brad Guzan #1 and Geoff Cameron #20 of United States celebrate the win over Paraguay after the Copa America Centenario Group C match at Lincoln Financial Field on June 11, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.The United States defeated Paraguay 1-0. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

— If Brazil wins, it finishes first. If it draws, it finishes first unless Ecuador unloads on Haiti.

— If Peru wins, it finishes first. Ecuador would pass Brazil for second with a win over Haiti.

— If Brazil and Peru draw, Peru will finish second unless Ecuador beats Haiti by six or more goals. If Ecuador beats Haiti by six goals, Peru would drop to third and Brazil and Ecuador would be divided by goals scored. If Ecuador beats Haiti by two goals, it passes Peru. If Ecuador beats Haiti by one goal, well, math is going to be an issue and we’ll leave that on the side for now.

There’s also a scenario where the runner-up would be determined by drawing lots. Bonkers.

In summation — how proper — the Yanks look fairly likely to get either Peru or Ecuador in the quarterfinal, and would be favored against either given home soil.