3rd? 4th? 5th? USMNT’s scenarios for final day of WCQ

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Now that Costa Rica and Honduras (1-1 draw after a 94th-minute Ticos equalizer) have completed matchday no. 9 of CONCACAF’s Hexagonal round of 2018 World Cup qualifying, you’re probably wondering, “So, what does the U.S. national team have to do in its final game to qualify automatically? How do we end up in the playoff versus Syria or Australia?”

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With Mexico and Costa Rica locked into first and second places, respectively, here’s a look at the current Hex standings, followed by every possible scenario (tiebreakers listed in order, from left to right)…

Team Pts GD GF
Mexico 21 +10 14
Costa Rica 16 +7 13
USA 12 +5 16
Panama 10 -2 7
Honduras 10 -7 10
T&T 3 -13 5

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USMNT WILL FINISH THIRD IF…

  • 1) USA beats T&T
  • 1) USA draws T&T; 2) Panama fails to beat Costa Rica AND recover a 7-goal goal-differential disadvantage; OR 2) Honduras fails to beat Mexico AND recover 12-goal goal-differential disadvantage
  • 1) USA loses vs. T&T; 2) Panama draws or loses vs. Costa Rica; 3) Honduras draws or loses vs. Mexico

[ RECAP: USMNT routs Panama to boost World Cup dreams in a big way ]

USMNT WILL FINISH FOURTH IF…

  • 1) USA draws T&T; 2) Panama beats Costa Rica AND recovers a 7-goal goal-differential disadvantage; OR 2) Honduras beats Mexico AND recovers 12-goal goal-differential disadvantage
  • 1) USA loses vs. T&T; 2) Panama beat Costa Rica; 3) Honduras draw or lose vs. Mexico; OR 2) Honduras beat Mexico; 2) Panama draws or loses vs. Costa Rica

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USMNT WILL FINISH FIFTH IF…

  • 1) USA draws vs. T&T; 2) Panama beats Costa Rica AND recovers 7-goal goal-differential disadvantage; AND 3) Honduras beats Mexico AND recovers 12-goal goal-differential disadvantage
  • 1) USA loses vs. T&T; 2) Panama beats Costa Rica; 3) Honduras beats Mexico

There you have it, so which of the above is it going to be on Tuesday? Will the Yanks finish third, fourth or fourth?