The bottom half of the Premier League table is a 10-team relegation scrap.
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That could feel more like nine should Watford upset Chelsea at Vicarage Road on Monday, but we’ll play the odds and keep the Hornets very much in play.
Forget the places assigned to the names, this is a better idea of where the clubs stand with a dozen or fewer matches to play:
27 points — Watford, West Ham, Brighton, Crystal Palace
26 points — Southampton
25 points — Newcastle
24 points — Swansea, Stoke, Huddersfield Town
20 points — West Brom
Watford (13 fixtures left)
Home: Chelsea, Everton, West Brom, Bournemouth, Burnley, Palace, Newcastle
Away: West Ham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Huddersfield, Spurs, Man Utd
The key: Four scrappers head to Vicarage Road. The Hornets should be fine if they avoid losing those. Including the 13th match against Chelsea, Watford is one of the bunch to face five of the Top Six.
West Ham United
Home: Watford, Burnley, Man Utd, Southampton, Stoke, Man City, Everton
Away: Liverpool, Swans, Chelsea, Arsenal, Leicester
The key: The Irons play three-straight home matches in March, with Burnley, Man Utd, and Southampton dancing into the London Stadium. Those three represent 60 percent of their remaining home dates. In total, the Hammers face five of the Top Six.
Brighton and Hove Albion
Home: Swans, Arsenal, Leicester, Huddersfield, Spurs, Burnley, Man Utd
Away: Stoke, Everton, Man City, Palace, Liverpool
The key: Be safe before the final four fixtures, which include Spurs, Man Utd, and Liverpool sides sure to still be concerned about table standing. Also face five of the Top Six.
Home: Spurs, Man Utd, Liverpool, Brighton, Leicester, West Brom
Away: Everton, Chelsea, Huddersfield Town, Bournemouth, Watford, Stoke
The key: Get to April alive — The Eagles will face Spurs, Man Utd, Chelsea, and Liverpool amongst their next six fixtures. It’s much easier the rest of the way.
Home: Liverpool, Stoke City, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Man City
Away: Burnley, Newcastle, Swansea City, West Ham, Arsenal, Leicester, Everton
The key: Saints have a three-match March road swing through fellow relegation battlers Newcastle, Swans, and West Ham. A little bit fortunate that Saints’ home finale versus Man City will feature probably pre-occupied City already having clinched the league.
Home: Man Utd, Southampton, Huddersfield, Arsenal, West Brom, Chelsea
Away: Bournemouth, Liverpool, Spurs, Leicester, Everton, Watford
The key: Be safe before the finale versus Chelsea. March home dates with Saints and Huddersfield will be huge in the noisy north. Five of the Top Six remaining on the schedule.
Home: Burnley, West Ham, Southampton, Everton, Chelsea, Stoke
Away: Brighton, Huddersfield, Man Utd, West Brom, Man City, Bournemouth
The key: It’s very much in Swans’ hands, facing six of the current bottom half and only three of the Top Six. At least four points in their next two — Burnley and Brighton — feel as important as anything, and the final match versus Stoke City could be colossal.
Home: Brighton, Man City, Everton, Spurs, Burnley, Palace
Away: Leicester, Southampton, Arsenal, West Ham, Liverpool, Swans
The key: How massive might that finale at Swansea be to both team’s fortunes? The list looks manageable for the team with the most goals conceded in the Premier League (by six).
Home: Bournemouth, Swansea, Palace, Watford, Everton, Arsenal
Away: West Brom, Spurs, Newcastle, Brighton, Chelsea, Man City
The key: Three of Town’s last four come versus Chelsea, Man City, and Arsenal. Even with City likely to have the title sewn up, that’s no cakewalk. Plus the fourth match is Everton. So gets points quick, especially with Bournemouth and West Brom next on the league docket.
West Bromwich Albion
Home: Huddersfield Town, Leicester, Burnley, Swans, Liverpool, Spurs
Away: Chelsea, Watford, Bournemouth, Man Utd, Newcastle, Palace
The key: Wins, not draws; The Baggies have more ground to make up than any other team. The points are certainly there for them.