The crew over at Opta have been extremely busy ahead of the 2018 World Cup and their computer models have predicted pretty much everything that’s going to happen.
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Okay, well, they haven’t predicted that Harry Kane will slip and miss a decisive penalty kick for England in the semifinal or that Senegal will win the entire thing thanks to a horrendous own goal by Brazil’s Marcelo, but they’ve kept things simple and have worked out the percentage chance of each team winning the World Cup and the chance of each team making it out of the group stage.
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Below is the percent chances for all of that happening via their predictive model. Bookmark this and see how close they get.