Own it.
Thatโs how I look at Premier League predictions. When youโre right, be happy about your good fortune. When youโre wrong, raise your hand.
But thereโs another level to it: Why was I right or wrong? Did a team let me down, or did I vastly overrate/underrate their potential?
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Twenty months ago I pegged Burnley to get relegated with an almost record-low amount of points. The Clarets qualified for the Europa League, and I ate my words (even if Sean Dycheโs men seemingly out-performed every metric on Earth in spite of stats, like some old man claiming Man City wins because of โbetter chemistry, not talentโ).
Cardiff City
Predicted finish: 20
Actual finish: 18
How wrong was I? Not. As much credit as the Bluebirds got for grinding every week, and as much of a difference as the late Emiliano Sala couldโve been to their fortunes, they completed passes at an almost absurdly-bad 63.9 percent rate while having just 39.1 percent of the ball. It was bad.
Huddersfield Town
Predicted finish: 19
Actual finish: 20
How wrong was I?ย Not. Huddersfield Town managed a league-worst .4 attempts per game from inside the six-yard box, and were one of only five teams to attempt less than six shots per game from inside the 18.
Watford
Predicted finish: 18
Actual finish: 11
How wrong was I? Pretty wrong. Javi Graciaโs men were strong against bad teams โ for the most part โ but never sprung another real upset after beating Spurs to go 4-0 early in the season. Record against the Top Six? 1W-0D-11L.
Bournemouth
Predicted finish: 17
Actual finish: 14
How wrong was I?ย Eh. The Cherries were never really in trouble thanks to a 6-2-2 start, but man did they ride their luck.
Burnley
Predicted finish: 16
Actual finish: 15
How wrong was I?ย Iโve learned my lesson. Regardless of how much talent appears to be on a Sean Dyche roster, heโs a rich manโs Tony Pulis and should not be doubted.
Southampton
Predicted finish: 15
Actual finish: 16
How wrong was I?ย With respect to Mark Hughes, I thought Saintsโ season would come down to when he was sacked and who they identified to replace him. Ralph Hasenhuttlโs in a good place.
Brighton and Hove Albion
Predicted finish: 14
Actual finish: 17
How wrong was I? A bit wrong, and I pretty much blame Pascal Gross, who back slid from 7 goals and 8 assists in his Premier League debut to just three and three in Year No. 2. The Seagulls didnโt score a single goal from outside the 18.
Wolves
Predicted finish: 13
Actual finish: 7
How wrong was I?ย Itโs not simply about buying players โ see: Fulham โ but about acquiring hungry players. Raul Jimenez, Diogo Jota, and several others had points to prove, and Jimenez especially made it well.
Newcastle United
Predicted finish: 12
Actual finish: 13
How wrong was I?ย To be honest, this went about as I expected given the brutal fixture list to start the season. Had I known Miguel Almiron wouldโve transitioned so nicely from MLS to the PL, I mightโve had them 10th.
Fulham
Predicted finish: 11
Actual finish: 19
How wrong was I?ย Very, but to my defense so were most people. On paper, the Cottagers improved more than even Wolves.
Crystal Palace
Predicted finish: 10
Actual finish: 12
How wrong was I? The stats kinda back me up, and it may be worth noting for next season that the Palaceโs results didnโt match its performances. Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Luka Milivojevic, and Wilfried Zaha gave them difference makers in all thirds of the field, and itโs surprising they didnโt push a bit higher on the table.
Leicester City
Predicted finish: 9
Actual finish: 9
How wrong was I?ย Not. The Foxes were pretty infuriating all year. Maybe Brendan Rodgersโ ego and power will match the player power thatโs run the club since they won the title. That said, the inconsistency and tumult shouldnโt be a surprise in a season the club had to deal with its owner dying on a match day.
West Ham United
Predicted finish: 8
Actual finish: 10
How wrong was I?ย Not really. I thought it would take Manuel Pellegrini some time to put his men together, but I didnโt predict the Irons would get aย total of 37 appearances from Andriy Yarmolenko, Jack Wilshere, Manuel Lanzini, and Carlos Sanchez.
Everton
Predicted finish: 7
Actual finish: 8
How wrong was I?ย It took Marco Silva longer than expected to get his men humming, but think of this: If Jordan Pickford doesnโt give Divock Origi a derby winner, Everton is going to Europe. I know, I knowโฆ chaos theory. But still.
Tottenham Hotspur
Predicted finish: 6
Actual finish: 4
How wrong was I?ย Like many, I was stunned that Spurs didnโt spend this summer and thought injuries would hurt them. They did, but only to the extent that Tottenham wasnโt able to sustain a title challenge. Spurs rarely gave the ball away, and the only teams that averaged fewer โtimes dispossessedโ than Tottenhamโs 9.2 per 90 were teams that never had the ball: Brighton, Cardiff, and Burnley.
Arsenal
Predicted finish: 5
Actual finish: 5
How wrong was I?ย Spot-on. It was going to take time for the Gunners to come together following a first managerial change in ages, but Arsenal had the offense to challenge for the Top Four. Surprisingly for Arsenal, they averaged just eight dribbles per game, 12th in the PL. Unai Emery had them more cautious than usual.
Chelsea
Predicted finish: 4
Actual finish: 3
How wrong was I?ย Not. Maurizio Sarri is not for everyone, but he knows how to get results. Granted Gonzalo Higuain was his guy, but he did it without a top striker.
Liverpool
Predicted finish: 3
Actual finish: 2
How wrong was I?ย Well, considering the Reds had one of the best runners-up finishes of all-time, quite wrong. Mostly, I didnโt expect Mohamed Salah to deliver again and he mostly did (save for a late winter slump).
Manchester United
Predicted finish: 2
Actual finish: 6
How wrong was I?ย Real wrong. Almost as wrong as United looks for canning Jose Mourinho. The manager needed to leave town, but there was a reason he was playing so packed-in. Ask yourself this: If Ed Woodward gave Mourinho the use of Toby Alderweireld, would Spurs and United be flipped?
Manchester City
Predicted finish: 1
Actual finish: 1
How wrong was I? On point. How good was City? For a club that ranked No. 1 in possession, they were only dispossessed 10.3 times per match. That was the 8th fewest total in the league.
