Premier League relegation scenarios heading into the final day

Premier League relegation scenarios
Photo by Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images)

Only one of three Premier League clubs will survive Championship Sunday to remain in England’s top flight.

Aston Villa won and Watford lost on Thursday to leave three teams vulnerable to relegation.

Villa’s 1-0 win over Arsenal could hardly have been better and Watford’s setback hardly worse. The Hornets’ 4-0 loss to Man City meant Villa’s win boosted it ahead of Watford on goal differential.

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Villa’s minus-26, one better than Watford and Bournemouth. The Cherries need to win and hope for Watford and Villa losses on Sunday.

West Ham could mathematically go down but would need to be blown out by Manchester United and Villa and have Watford destroy Arsenal to erase a 14-goal Irons advantage in goal differential.

We’ll get into it means for the three teams, but first: the table and tiebreaker rules

Premier League Standings

Team GP W D L GF GA GD Home Away PTS
 West Ham United 36 10 7 19 47 60 -13 6-3-9 4-4-10 37
 Aston Villa 37 9 7 21 40 66 -26 7-3-9 2-4-12 34

 Watford 37 8 10 19 34 61 -27 6-6-7 2-4-12 34
 Bournemouth 37 8 7 22 37 64 -27 5-6-8 3-1-14 31
 Norwich City 37 5 6 26 26 70 -44 4-3-12 1-3-14 21


In terms of tiebreakers, here is the order and format in which league position will be sorted by if teams finish level on points:

  • Goal difference
  • Goals scored
  • Points won in head-to-head meetings
  • Away goals in head-to-head meetings

If the teams still can’t be separated after the above tiebreakers, a playoff will be arranged (at a neutral ground with the format, timing and venue determined by the Premier League Board).

Aston Villa

last match: 11 am ET Sunday at West Ham

Villa needs a little bit more than a win or hoping Watford falls at Arsenal.

How could Villa go down with a win? If Watford beats Arsenal by at least two more goals than Villa defeats West Ham, it will climb over the Villans.

Similarly, if Bournemouth draws or loses, and both Villa and Watford lose, Villa could go down if it loses to West Ham by at least two more goals than Watford loses to Arsenal.

If both Villa and Watford draw, Villa stays up.

If Villa draws and Watford loses, Villa stays up regardless of what Bournemouth does at Everton.


last match: 11 am ET Sunday at Arsenal

A win over the Gunners would be enough if Villa loses.

A draw would be enough if West Ham beats Aston Villa.

Watford could even advance with a loss if Bournemouth draws or loses and Villa loses to West Ham by two more goals than the Hornets loses to Arsenal.


last match: 11 am ET Sunday at Everton

The Cherries need to win at Everton. Anything less and they’re down.

If Eddie Howe’s men take down the Toffees, they also need Watford and Villa to lose.