Premier League scenarios: Relegation, Top 4, Europa League, tiebreaker rules

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It is time to focus on the latest Premier League relegation, top 4 and Europa League scenarios and remind ourselves of the Premier League tiebreaker rules as the business end of the season is here.

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Strap in, folks, and get your calculators out and keep this page open as it will come in very handy in the final week of the season with things about to get wild.

Below we take a look at the latest scenarios for relegation, Europa League and the top 4, as there are many permutations which could play out during the final 90 minutes of the season.

Plenty could still be decided on the final day of the season.

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Here’s a look at what needs to happen for relegation, Europa League and top four spots to be confirmed, while a look at the tiebreaker rules already has us imagining the madness of Watford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa all being tied on points, goal difference and goals scored when the final whistle arrives.


PREMIER LEAGUE TOP 4 SCENARIOS

Chelsea

  • Chelsea would clinch top-4 with:
    • Win/draw v. Wolves

OR

    • Loss v. Wolves AND Manchester United win at Leicester

Manchester United

  • Manchester United would clinch top-4 with:
    • Win/draw at Leicester

OR

    • Chelsea loss v. Wolves*

*Scenario assumes MU maintain GD advantage over Chelsea (MU: +28 / CHE: +13)


Leicester City

  • Leicester would clinch top-4 with:
    • Win v. Manchester United

OR

    • Draw v. Manchester United AND Chelsea loss v. Wolves

EUROPA LEAGUE SCENARIOS

Wolves

  • Wolves would clinch top-6 finish if:
    • They better or equal Tottenham’s result

Tottenham Hotspur

  • Tottenham would clinch top-6 finish if:
    • They better Wolves’ results

And 7th would qualify for Europa League if Chelsea win the FA Cup.


TIEBREAKER RULES

In terms of tiebreakers, here is the order and format in which league position will be sorted by if teams finish level on points:

  • Goal difference
  • Goals scored
  • Points won in head-to-head meetings
  • Away goals in head-to-head meetings

If the teams still can’t be separated after the above tiebreakers, a playoff will be arranged (at a neutral ground with the format, timing and venue determined by the Premier League Board).


RELEGATION SCENARIOS

Team GP W D L GF GA GD Home Away PTS
 West Ham United 37 10 8 19 48 61 -13 6-3-9 4-5-10 38
 Aston Villa 37 9 7 21 40 66 -26 7-3-9 2-4-12 34

 Watford 37 8 10 19 34 61 -27 6-6-7 2-4-12 34
 Bournemouth 37 8 7 22 37 64 -27 5-6-8 3-1-14 31
 Norwich City 37 5 6 26 26 70 -44 4-3-12 1-3-14 21

Relegation – How teams can stay up

    • Aston Villa: Better Watford’s result OR draw and Watford draw
    • Watford: Better Aston Villa’s result
    • Bournemouth: Win and both Aston Villa and Watford lose

Aston Villa

last match: 11 am ET Sunday at West Ham

Villa needs a little bit more than a win or hoping Watford falls at Arsenal.

How could Villa go down with a win? If Watford beats Arsenal by at least two more goals than Villa defeats West Ham, it will climb over the Villans.

Similarly, if Bournemouth draws or loses, and both Villa and Watford lose, Villa could go down if it loses to West Ham by at least two more goals than Watford loses to Arsenal.

If both Villa and Watford draw, Villa stays up.

If Villa draws and Watford loses, Villa stays up regardless of what Bournemouth does at Everton.


Watford

last match: 11 am ET Sunday at Arsenal

A win over the Gunners would be enough if Villa loses.

A draw would be enough if West Ham beats Aston Villa.

Watford could even stay up with a loss if Bournemouth draws or loses and Villa loses to West Ham by two more goals than the Hornets loses to Arsenal.


Bournemouth

last match: 11 am ET Sunday at Everton

The Cherries need to win at Everton. Anything less and they’re down.

If Eddie Howe’s men take down the Toffees, they also need Watford and Villa to lose.