Who would lead the Premier League in expected goals W-L?

0 Comments

We here at ProSoccerTalk aren’t scared to mention expected goals in this space, and it’s fun to check up on whether the eye test matches the advanced stats after Premier League matches.

[ NEW: PST unfiltered — USMNT report, Gerrard to Villa ]

Using the site Understat, we checked to see how often PL teams won matches in both xG and, you know, the actual score line.

It might surprise you to read that the second-best record in the league belongs to a newly-promoted team.

What also may raise an eyebrow or two? That Man City probably should have a 5-plus point lead on the field with better finishing, and that Liverpool’s scorers are delivering in an efficient manner.

After the jump: A list of the worst to best teams in the PL’s xG race, and a handful of fun facts on a handful of clubs.

Newcastle United

Record: 0W-5D-6L
xG record: 1-10
< +1 xG wins: 1
< +1 xG losses: 6

Eddie Howe is taking over a club that has given up 139 shots in open play while producing just 74 and holding a single xG win, against Watford. The Magpies have scored four times but produced just a combined 2.63 xG over their last five matches

Norwich City

Record: 1W-2D-8L
xG record: 2-9
< +1 xG wins: 0
< +1 xG losses: 6

Funny story: The Canaries’ only actual win saw them outperformed in xG, 2.79-1.16.

Aston Villa

Record: 3W-1D-7L
xG record: 2-9
< +1 xG wins: 1
< +1 xG losses: 2

Watford

Record: 3W-1D-7L
xG record: 3-8
< +1 xG wins: 2
< +1 xG losses: 7

Talk about feast or famine: Watford has three of the 10 worst single-game xG outputs in the PL this season. Norwich is the only other team on the list twice.

Leicester City

Record: 4W-3D-4L
xG record: 3-8
< +1 xG wins: 2
< +1 xG losses: 3

Burnley

Record: 1W-5D-5L
xG record: 4-7
< +1 xG wins: 1
< +1 xG losses: 4

Tottenham Hotspur

Record: 5W-1D-5L
xG record: 4-7
< +1 xG wins: 0
< +1 xG losses: 4

Leeds United

Record: 2W-5D-4L
xG record: 5-6
< +1 xG wins: 2
< +1 xG losses: 3

Southampton

Record: 3W-5D-3L
xG record: 5-1-5
< +1 xG wins: 3
< +1 xG losses: 3

Saints and Wolves don’t just have the same xG record, they pulled off a rare exact xG draws.

Wolves

Record: 5W-1D-5L
xG record: 5-1-5
< +1 xG wins: 1
< +1 xG losses: 2

Brighton and Hove Albion

Record: 4W-5D-2L
xG record: 6-5
< +1 xG wins: 2
< +1 xG losses: 1

Manchester United

Record: 5W-2D-4L
xG record: 6-5
< +1 xG wins: 3
< +1 xG losses: 3

Everton

Record: 4W-3D-4L
xG record: 6-5
< +1 xG wins: 2
< +1 xG losses: 2

Arsenal

Record: 6W-2D-3L
xG record: 6-5
< +1 xG wins: 4
< +1 xG losses: 2

Four-straight xG wins (3W-1D on the actual table)

Crystal Palace

Record: 3W-6D-2L
xG record: 7-4
< +1 xG wins: 3
< +1 xG losses: 2

Of the 10 most-lopsided xG wins this season, three belong to Man City, another three to Liverpool, two to Chelsea… and two to Palace.

West Ham United

Record: 7W-2D-2L
xG record: 8-3
< +1 xG wins: 5
< +1 xG losses: 0

Liverpool

Record: 6W-4D-1L
xG record: 8-3
< +1 xG wins: 6
< +1 xG losses: 0

The Reds have three of the top eight xG producers in the Premier League, and Mohamed Salah is the one under-producing. Sadio Mane and Diogo Jota are the others, with Roberto Firmino 14th. That’s four players in the top 14.

Chelsea

Record: 8W-2D-1L
xG record: 8-3
< +1 xG wins: 6
< +1 xG losses: 3

Brentford

Record: 3W-3D-5L
xG record: 9-2
< +1 xG wins: 3
< +1 xG losses: 1

Man City

Record: 7W-2D-2L
xG record: 10-1
< +1 xG wins: 8
< +1 xG losses: 0

City’s only xG loss was its 2-0 loss to Palace… and it was 1.05-0.66 in xG. City is very much for real and with a proper finisher at center forward the title race might already be looking run.