Ralph Hasenhuttl

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Just how wrong? Revisiting Premier League predictions

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Own it.

That’s how I look at Premier League predictions. When you’re right, be happy about your good fortune. When you’re wrong, raise your hand.

But there’s another level to it: Why was I right or wrong? Did a team let me down, or did I vastly overrate/underrate their potential?

[ MORE: Players to watch at U-20 World Cup ]

Twenty months ago I pegged Burnley to get relegated with an almost record-low amount of points. The Clarets qualified for the Europa League, and I ate my words (even if Sean Dyche‘s men seemingly out-performed every metric on Earth in spite of stats, like some old man claiming Man City wins because of “better chemistry, not talent”).

Cardiff City
Predicted finish: 20
Actual finish: 18

How wrong was I? Not. As much credit as the Bluebirds got for grinding every week, and as much of a difference as the late Emiliano Sala could’ve been to their fortunes, they completed passes at an almost absurdly-bad 63.9 percent rate while having just 39.1 percent of the ball. It was bad.

Huddersfield Town
Predicted finish: 19
Actual finish: 20

How wrong was I? Not. Huddersfield Town managed a league-worst .4 attempts per game from inside the six-yard box, and were one of only five teams to attempt less than six shots per game from inside the 18.

Watford
Predicted finish: 18
Actual finish: 11

How wrong was I? Pretty wrong. Javi Gracia‘s men were strong against bad teams — for the most part — but never sprung another real upset after beating Spurs to go 4-0 early in the season. Record against the Top Six? 1W-0D-11L.

Bournemouth
Predicted finish: 17
Actual finish: 14

How wrong was I? Eh. The Cherries were never really in trouble thanks to a 6-2-2 start, but man did they ride their luck.

Burnley
Predicted finish: 16
Actual finish: 15

How wrong was I? I’ve learned my lesson. Regardless of how much talent appears to be on a Sean Dyche roster, he’s a rich man’s Tony Pulis and should not be doubted.

The face Sean Dyche makes before he fist fights an entire village. Terrifying. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

Southampton
Predicted finish: 15
Actual finish: 16

How wrong was I? With respect to Mark Hughes, I thought Saints’ season would come down to when he was sacked and who they identified to replace him. Ralph Hasenhuttl‘s in a good place.

Brighton and Hove Albion
Predicted finish: 14
Actual finish: 17

How wrong was I? A bit wrong, and I pretty much blame Pascal Gross, who back slid from 7 goals and 8 assists in his Premier League debut to just three and three in Year No. 2. The Seagulls didn’t score a single goal from outside the 18.

Wolves
Predicted finish: 13
Actual finish: 7

How wrong was I? It’s not simply about buying players — see: Fulham — but about acquiring hungry players. Raul Jimenez, Diogo Jota, and several others had points to prove, and Jimenez especially made it well.

Newcastle United
Predicted finish: 12
Actual finish: 13

How wrong was I? To be honest, this went about as I expected given the brutal fixture list to start the season. Had I known Miguel Almiron would’ve transitioned so nicely from MLS to the PL, I might’ve had them 10th.

 (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Fulham
Predicted finish: 11
Actual finish: 19

How wrong was I? Very, but to my defense so were most people. On paper, the Cottagers improved more than even Wolves.

Crystal Palace
Predicted finish: 10
Actual finish: 12

How wrong was I? The stats kinda back me up, and it may be worth noting for next season that the Palace’s results didn’t match its performances. Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Luka Milivojevic, and Wilfried Zaha gave them difference makers in all thirds of the field, and it’s surprising they didn’t push a bit higher on the table.

Leicester City
Predicted finish: 9
Actual finish: 9

How wrong was I? Not. The Foxes were pretty infuriating all year. Maybe Brendan Rodgers‘ ego and power will match the player power that’s run the club since they won the title. That said, the inconsistency and tumult shouldn’t be a surprise in a season the club had to deal with its owner dying on a match day.

West Ham United
Predicted finish: 8
Actual finish: 10

How wrong was I? Not really. I thought it would take Manuel Pellegrini some time to put his men together, but I didn’t predict the Irons would get a total of 37 appearances from Andriy Yarmolenko, Jack Wilshere, Manuel Lanzini, and Carlos Sanchez.

Everton
Predicted finish: 7
Actual finish: 8

How wrong was I? It took Marco Silva longer than expected to get his men humming, but think of this: If Jordan Pickford doesn’t give Divock Origi a derby winner, Everton is going to Europe. I know, I know… chaos theory. But still.

Richarlison (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

Tottenham Hotspur
Predicted finish: 6
Actual finish: 4

How wrong was I? Like many, I was stunned that Spurs didn’t spend this summer and thought injuries would hurt them. They did, but only to the extent that Tottenham wasn’t able to sustain a title challenge. Spurs rarely gave the ball away, and the only teams that averaged fewer “times dispossessed” than Tottenham’s 9.2 per 90 were teams that never had the ball: Brighton, Cardiff, and Burnley.

Arsenal
Predicted finish: 5
Actual finish: 5

How wrong was I? Spot-on. It was going to take time for the Gunners to come together following a first managerial change in ages, but Arsenal had the offense to challenge for the Top Four. Surprisingly for Arsenal, they averaged just eight dribbles per game, 12th in the PL. Unai Emery had them more cautious than usual.

Chelsea
Predicted finish: 4
Actual finish: 3

How wrong was I? Not. Maurizio Sarri is not for everyone, but he knows how to get results. Granted Gonzalo Higuain was his guy, but he did it without a top striker.

Liverpool
Predicted finish: 3
Actual finish: 2

How wrong was I? Well, considering the Reds had one of the best runners-up finishes of all-time, quite wrong. Mostly, I didn’t expect Mohamed Salah to deliver again and he mostly did (save for a late winter slump).

Manchester United
Predicted finish: 2
Actual finish: 6

How wrong was I? Real wrong. Almost as wrong as United looks for canning Jose Mourinho. The manager needed to leave town, but there was a reason he was playing so packed-in. Ask yourself this: If Ed Woodward gave Mourinho the use of Toby Alderweireld, would Spurs and United be flipped?

Manchester City
Predicted finish: 1
Actual finish: 1

How wrong was I? On point. How good was City? For a club that ranked No. 1 in possession, they were only dispossessed 10.3 times per match. That was the 8th fewest total in the league.

Premier League Club Power Rankings: Post-season

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Why make power rankings when a season is complete, each team having played each other twice to give a complete representation of their quality?

Because now that we know who’s won the league, made the Top Four, and been relegated, there’s a sea of changes amongst the teams in between.

[ MORE: Jovic to Real Madrid ]

Plus, we’ll take into account the quality of finish, big obstacles, and how the clubs are positioned for 2019/20.


20. Fulham — Given the spend, and the names, there’s no question their season was the biggest failure of any team in the Premier League.
Last week: 17
Season high: 11
Season low: 20

19. Huddersfield Town — In some ways, it’s amazing the Terriers lasted two seasons.
Last week: 19
Season high: 16
Season low: 20

18. Cardiff City — I’m tempted to put them outside the Bottom Three for the effort, but relegated is relegated.
Last week: 20
Season high: 13
Season low: 20


17. Brighton and Hove Albion — Just may enter next season as the joint-favorite to go down.
Last week: 18
Season high: 9
Season low: 19

16. Burnley — Is Sean Dyche a scarier Tony Pulis?
Last week: 16
Season high: 11
Season low: 20

15. Southampton — What will Ralph Hasenhuttl buy this offseason?
Last week: 15
Season high: 13
Season low: 20

14. Bournemouth — Has Eddie Howe reached the peak of what he can do at the Vitality Stadium? Terrific seasons for Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson.
Last week: 14
Season high: 6
Season low: 14

13. Newcastle United — Will Rafa stay, and will Ashley spend? Both probably matter equally.
Last week: 13
Season high: 11
Season low: 19

12. Crystal Palace — What happens post-Zaha?
Last week: 10
Season high: 6
Season low: 17

11. Watford — Petered out, but could still get silverware.
Last week: 12
Season high: 4
Season low: 14

10. West Ham United — Give Pellegrini another offseason — and the continued services of Felipe Anderson — and the Irons may challenge for at least a cup.
Last week: 11
Season high: 6
Season low: 20

9. Manchester United — What does it say that the players didn’t vote Paul Pogba as club Player of the Year? Plenty.
Last week: 8
Season high: 3
Season low: 14

8. Leicester City — Full credit to Brendan Rodgers for finishing strong despite a gamut of fixtures. You’d probably want their roster of Manchester United’s right now, to be honest.
Last week: 8
Season high: 7
Season low: 13

7. Arsenal — The focus has been on Europa League for weeks. What would losing the final and missing out on the Champions League mean to Unai Emery‘s recruiting efforts?
Last week: 6
Season high: 2
Season low: 9

6. Wolves — Tasked with finishing strong to give themselves the best shot at the Europa League, Wolves won three before losing to Liverpool. A consistency they sought all year arrived late.
Last week: 5
Season high: 5
Season low: 13

5. Everton — Without European football and with another year together, will be the sexy pick to climb into the Top Six.
Last week: 7
Season high: 5
Season low: 15


4. Chelsea — Third on the table, fourth on our charts; What looms once Hazard leaves Stamford Bridge?
Last week: 3
Season high: 1
Season low: 7

3. Tottenham Hotspur — Navigating the stadium delays and dealing with plenty of injuries, Spurs impressed again.
Last week: 3
Season high: 2
Season low: 8

2. Liverpool — An outstanding season, amazing really, but the latest without a title in the Premier League era.
Last week: 2
Season high: 1
Season low: 4

1. Manchester City — You come at the king, you best not miss. Even by 11 millimeters. Now will UEFA hit its target?
Last week: 1
Season high: 1
Season low: 3

Harry Kane named in latest England squad

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The England squad for the 2019 UEFA Nations League finals has been released.

Captain Harry Kane is fit enough to be named in the initial 27-man squad, as England play the Netherlands in the inaugural UEFA Nations League finals in Guimaraes on June 6, and will then play either Switzerland or Portugal in the final or third-place match.

Kane has been out since early April with an ankle injury and Gareth Southgate is hopeful he will be able to play in the games, as the star striker is set to return and be involved for Tottenham in their UEFA Champions League final against Liverpool in Madrid on Jun. 1.

Southgate admitted that Kane’s status is still “unknown” for these games, but the Three Lions are willing to take that risk.

With up to 10 England players involved in the UCL final, many will only link up with England a few days before their semifinal against the Netherlands.

One of the big surprises is no James Maddison in the squad despite his good form for Leicester in the final weeks of the season, but that is due to the England U21 squad being the European Championships this summer. Southampton’s Nathan Redmond was called up to the squad for just the second time after his fine second half to the season under Ralph Hasenhuttl.

Below is the squad in full.

West Ham smash Saints (video)

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  • Arnautovic scores twice
  • Back-to-back wins for West Ham
  • 4 games without a win for Saints

West Ham eased by Southampton 3-0 at the London Stadium on Saturday, as the Hammers continued to end the season with a flourish.

Marko Arnautovic struck in each half to put West Ham in control, and Ryan Fredericks added another late on to seal the win. Southampton were better in the second half, but were second best for large spells of this game.

With the win West Ham are in 11th on 49 points, while Saints remain in 16th on 38 points.

[ MORE: Watch full PL match replays ]

Early on Saints had plenty of the play and Stuart Armstrong fired over after a good ball from Ings.

But West Ham took the lead after a horrible mistake from Yan Valery. The young defender passed the ball inside to Mark Noble who set up Arnautovic to slot home and made it 1-0.

[ VIDEO: Premier League highlights

Buoyed by that early goal, West Ham pinned Saints back and forced Fraser Forster (making his first appearance since December 2017) into a smart stop.

Forster then denied Michail Antonio from distance as the Hammers dominated the first half and deservedly led.

[ MORE: Latest Premier League standings ]

Nathan Redmond came on at half time and was in right away but his shot was blocked. And Redmond’s effort from a corner was then blocked as Saints pushed hard for an equalizer.

[ MORE: Full lineups, stats, box score ]

Lukasz Fabianski then tipped Redmond’s shot over the bar but then West Ham sealed the win. Arthur Masuaku‘s cross was punched out by Forster but the ball rebounded back to Arnautovic who nodded into an empty net to score his and West Ham’s second.

The Hammers took care of the Saints with minimum fuss as Jack Wilshere, on as a sub, flicked the ball into Ryan Fredericks’ path and the right back finished to make it 3-0.

Arnautovic almost wrapped up his hat trick late on but curled just wide, as West Ham eased to victory and Southampton showed how much work Ralph Hasenhuttl has to do over the summer after they survived relegation.

Hasenhuttl masterminds Saints’ survival: Now it gets tough

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Southampton had one win on the board and nine points from their opening 15 games of the season.

They looked certain for relegation. Years of poor decisions in the transfer market had cost them dear. Fans took aim at the new owners and Director of Football Les Reed and Chairman Ralph Krueger (both of whom have left the club this season) for hiring and firing three managers in just over 12 months.

Then Ralph Hasenhuttl arrived for his first taste of English soccer and everything changed. Fans love his enthusiasm on the sidelines and his honesty in interviews created a Jurgen Klopp-esque bond. His first press conference set the tone perfectly. 

The talented but previously unenthused players have ran themselves into the ground and beat the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham, Wolves and Everton at home, results which were unthinkable earlier in the campaign.

Hasenhuttl’s clear vision led to gritty displays which saw Saints secure their status as a Premier League side on Saturday after their 3-3 draw with Bournemouth.

Now the really, really hard work starts if Saints are to return to being contenders for a top 10 finish rather than what they’ve now become, perennial relegation strugglers.

The former RB Leipzig head coach knows it.

“We will have a few players leaving. In every position we will try to get better next year,” Hasenhuttl said. “We had a very interesting last transfer period – no signings, just giving players away. This summer we will rebuild. We can start planning for next year tomorrow. A bit less stress would be nice [next season], sitting relaxed outside and taking the points we need. The target is to get 40 points earlier than this year.”

That planning for next season should start right now at Southampton.

The Austrian coach didn’t spend any money in the January transfer window, his only window since arriving at the club, and it is unlikely he will be able to spend that much this summer.

Saints are hamstrung by having expensive signings on long-term contracts who they can’t get rid of.

Similar to the likes of Aston Villa and Sunderland before them, who kept their heads just above water season after season before finally being relegated, Saints are stuck with a bloated squad who haven’t proved their worth.

Wesley Hoedt, Sofiane Boufal, Cedric and Guido Carrillo are all out on loan right now and are unlikely to return. Manolo Gabbiadini was sold to Sampdoria in January. Fraser Forster is one of their highest earners but hasn’t played since December 2017. Mohamed Elyounoussi has barely featured. The list goes on and on.

Quite simply, Hasenhuttl will have to live with the legacy of Saints getting it wrong in several transfer windows since Ronald Koeman left in the summer of 2016. Since that summer they’ve spent over $200 million in transfer fees alone, and although the sale of Virgil Van Dijk and others negate those fees, players are on very large wages for a club of Southampton’s size which is run to be sustainable. They should be in that group of teams just outside the top six, not battling against the drop.

Something drastic has to change, and Hasenhuttl is now the right man to lead these decisions as he’s rejuvenated many members of the current squad in just five months.

The best thing Saints can now do is let Hasenhuttl have the huge clear out they need. Deadwood needs to be chopped.

Whatever it costs, they need to take the financial hit and let players leave on loan or for good, and let Hasenhuttl start the 2019-20 campaign with a fresh, hungry squad. The way he has brought out the best in Nathan Redmond, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and James Ward-Prowse among others proves his skill in inspiring players he inherited.

Imagine if he could actually add a handful of players he wants…

This season has to be the wake-up call that Saints should have had last season when they survived relegation with one game to go. And that was largely down to Swansea’s slump rather than a good run of their own.

Saints’ academy is one of the best in the league and that is where a lot of their fresh talent can come from. Hasenhuttl has put faith in youth his entire managerial career and that hasn’t changed since he arrived in the Premier League, with Yan Valery, Michael Obafemi, Josh Sims and Ward-Prowse all becoming regulars under him. There are others waiting to break through too.

Hasenhuttl has been brave by cutting out more experienced players and he and Southampton have been rewarded for that.

Now Southampton, who don’t have a chairman or anyone in charge of the football side of the club long-term since Krueger left, must back Hasenhuttl. Krueger brought Hasenhuttl in, but the Austrian is happy to remain at the club and continue to push on, with a new leader or sporting director needed to get things right behind-the-scenes.

Saints can now start to focus on next season and they have Hasenhuttl to thank for that.

“We had to take a lot of points [after taking over in December]. If you told me after our first game against Cardiff, when we were five points behind them [that Southampton would stay up], it’s amazing,” Hasenhuttl said. “We deserve this. We invested a lot in this time and learned a lot. We showed how beautiful we can play. The next step must be to get more clinical in some situations. Two games before the end to be clear is fantastic for us.”